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Friday, April 20, 2012

Elliott wave analyisi on EUR/USD; USD/JPY and GBP/USD

 EUR/USD - The price-action the last couple of days has been very messy, but the rally above resistance at 131.87 has forced to make some adjustments to the short term count. I now regard the decline from 133.85 to 129.93 as red wave i and red wave ii is ongoing and should ideally find resistance in the 132.35 - 132.50 area and setting the stages for red wave iii down below 129.93 for a continuation towards important long term support near 126.25.
 USD/JPY - Has been spot on. With the 81.77 high set today minor wave i up from 80.31 is most likely over. That means that we missed my target by just 10 small pips, but if you where long USD and haven't taken profit yet you could move stop to 81.45 or more conservatively hold it just below 80.30 as red wave ii unfolds.
Red wave ii shall ideally find support near the 81.10 - 81.20 area, from which I would recommend a new long USD-position with a 80.25 stop.
GBP/USD - As I said yesterday the latest price-action has tilted the longer term picture towards the big [B]-wave triangle still developing. Ideally we will see resistance at 161.65 on slightly above tested before the downside pressure can resume.
In the bigger picture we are now in the later part of wave E and when wave E is down we should be ready to see the thrust out of the triangle for a long term decline below 135.00.
For now lets concentrated on the last part of wave E as we approach the ideal target near 161.65.

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