EUR/USD - In the slightly bigger picture I'm still looking for a S/H/S top building and expect a test of the neckline support near 130.10 soon. Zooming in on the picture we can see that the high at 133.85 marked the top and we could have seen wave i down as an expanded diagonal (one should always be a bit careful naming an overlapping structure as a wave one, but if we are in a new impulsive down-wave, this will be the only option where it's possible)
Short term I look for a minor reaction back towards the 132.25 - 132.45 area from where the next minor wave down towards 131.35 should begin.
EUR/TRY - Is sitting just above important support and a break below here will spark the next powerful decline towards 228.50 and longer term the 221.25 target
USD/CAD - Is sitting right at strong support which I expect will hold for a break above 101.50 to confirm the bottom, but also the next rally higher towards the neckline resistance near 105.60.
Only a clear break below 98.35 will invalidate this picture and call for a slightly deeper decline towards the 97.20 - 97.75 area first.
CAD/TRY - Still my favorite way to play a short position in CAD. You have a nice forward premium to help you along and the prospect of a big top-formation is still very much in place.
AUD/USD - This cross has now taken over leading the way down for the commodity currencies. If we close below 103.25 today the downside should be open for a decline towards 98.60 as first target.
AUD/TRY - again if you don't like playing AUD/USD this might be the perfect way to be short AUD. You have a nice forward premium helping you along and AUD being the weakest of the commodity currencies right now just adds in the favor of this cross.
I'm looking for a break below 182.25 calling for a continuation deeper towards the 175 area.
NZD/USD - Here too we should see downside pressure building and a break below support at 81.10 and more importantly 80.55 should open up the downside for a decline towards the 78.00 - 78.35 area.
NZD/TRY - Here to we should see downside pressure building upon a break below support at 145.00 for a decline towards important support at 137.60.
Dr. Copper - We saw what appeared to be a break out of a triangle yesterday, but the break was rejected instantly and can only be looked upon as a failure break calling for serious pressure to the downside. However we need a break below support at 376.45 to confirm the failure and building even more downside pressure.
As I said in my post from March 29. (
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_29.html) I was very much in doubt that it was a triangle building. I think that yesterday price-action confirmed that view.
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