Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/JPY; EUR/TRY and CAD/TRY

GBP/USD - UPDATE! The rally above 159.84 has change the short term count, meaning we are still is minor wave ii in some kind of expanding formation. Expect resistance at 160.05 to protect the upside, but under no circumstance can a break above 160.62 be allowed as that will change the slightly bigger picture. A close below 159.84 will indicate a failure break and add pressure to the downside, but we now need a break below 159.30 and more importantly 158.90 to confirm a decline towards 158.10.

Original post below:

 EUR/USD - Even though the price-action since the 131.72 high yesterday isn't convincing (leading diagonal developing maybe?) I believe we have see an important top at 131.72 ending wave wave ii. I'm looking for a clear break below 130.88 to confirm the next assault on important support near 130.10 and a break below here will confirm a decline to strong long term support in the 126.25 - 126.50 area.

 USD/JPY - A break above 81.20 will confirm that we saw the end to wave 4 at 80.31 and that wave 5 towards 84.17 and 85.50 have begun. On the way towards 84.17 we will find resistance in the 82.00 - 82.25 area, but once that area is overcome the upside should be open for exploration.

 GBP/USD - As for EUR/USD the price action has not been convincing, which could because a leading diagonal is developing, but I do believe we found an important top at 159.70 yesterday and should see a lower high and a break below 159.05 and more importantly a break below 158.59, which will confirm a new assault on important short term support at 158.10. A break below 158.10 will confirm a continuation down towards 156.05 and deeper longer term.

 USD/CAD - I have had to change my count a bit as we broke below support at 99.00. The break below here was not in sync with a bottom already being in place. Therefore my new preferred count is shows that we have see some kind of triangle building as a wave 4 of C over the last month and half. That means we need one more low below 98.32 to end wave C of the correction from 106.57. Ideally this wave 5 of C will end in the 97.20 - 97.50 area and setting the next stages for the next rally higher.
I will use a test of the support in the 97.20 - 97.50 area to enter into a long USD-position with a 96.20 stop.

 EUR/JPY - All odds favor that we saw a bottom for wave 2 at 104.61 and that wave 3 up has begun. We will meet strong short term resistance in the 106.85 - 107.00 zone, which may cause a set-back towards the 105.15 - 105.40 area before we have build up enough energy to take out resistance at 107.00 for a move higher towards 110 and 111.43 on the way to 118.85.

 EUR/TRY - Is sitting right on strong support, but it should just be a matter of time before we break below 233.10 confirming that wave 4 is over and wave 5 down towards 221.25 has begun.
You know this is one of my favorite currency crosses. I am already short this cross, but I will recommend shorting more on a break below 233.10 with a 238.50 stop and take profit near 221.25.

CAD/TRY - Is a cross I like very much too, but the right shoulder should take more time to build (symmetry between the left and right shoulder) however when this done in the first half of May we should see a break below the neckline support near 176.50 for a powerful decline towards at least 170.00, but more likely we will see a decline all the way down to the 157 - 158 area.