AUD/USD
Has extended its rally higher towards the 50% retarcement of wave A, which comes in at 0.9714. The big question is whether we will see a continuation even higher towards the 61.8% retracement target at 0.9919 before the next major sell-off takes over.
Despite the extension my long term view remains the same, that we should soon see a new major sell-off and it's just a question of, from where the major wave C takes over for a decline towards at least 0.8065.
Short term a break below 0.9601 will be the first warning, that this B-wave rally is loosing momentum and a break below 0.9485 will indicate that wave C has taken over for a decline lower towards 0.8065.
Here too we are close to a top, but the Picture is completely different. The rally of the 0.7679 has been higher than first expected and has changed my medium term count, but not my long term expectation of a new major sell-off once this B-wave triangle is over.
My new long term Count suggest, that a B-wave triangle is developing and we are currently in c, which ideally will end between 0.8586 and 0.8625 for a decline in wave d towards 0.7955 before the final e-wave rally ends the triangle and the thrust out of the triangle to the downside should be expected.
Only a break above 0.8677 will invalidate the B-wave triangle a confirm a continuation higher towards 0.8843.
Hi EWS!
ReplyDeleteyou told that may be we see gbpusd at 1.6321 as na expanded flat corretion and them down. But at that level 1.6321 is not above the trendline of the big triangle?
Hi Zink,
ReplyDeleteIt might be above the triangle resistance line, but at this point we can't say for sure, that wave D is in place and we will have to wait for confirmation, which would come if we don't trade above 1.6260 and declines below 1.5894. However if we trade above 1.6260 wave D is still ongoing and we must accept a possible extension higher towards 1.6321 before lower.
Kind regards
EWS
what about usdjpy?Your main analisies is still intact or we are on the way to the alternate count?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
DeleteI still regard the wave 4 triagle as the most likely outcome here, but we will have to wait of the thrust out of the triangle towrads the upside to know for sure.
The rally from 96.56 does look impulsive in character, which's what should be expected if it was a wave 4 triangle, but we still need some additional confirmation.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your continued great work! Just want to ask you regarding AUD/JPY since you have covered AUD/USD and talked about USD/JPY in the comments.
On Sept 19 you wrote that AUD/JPY is curently in wave b of an a-b-c correction which would peak around 98.14 for leg c lower. Do you still see this as the case? On the daily looking at a complex inverted H&S with implied target ~102 depending on how you draw the neckline. Any comments on this?
Thanks in advance again! Big fan of your work!