Preferred count
EUR/JPY
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 132.69 - Important resistance.
R2: 132.09
R1: 131.79
Current Spot: 131.46
S1: 131.11
S2: 130.81 - Support line from 124.96. Break below here shifts the the alternate count.
S3: 130.51
Technical Summary:
Support at 131.46 did not hold and that forces us to consider an alternate count (see the chart below). As long as the support-line from 124.96, which currently is at 130.81, protects the downside the above chart stays as our preferred count, but the two scenarios has an almost fifty-fifty chance at this point. What border me with the above count is the fact, that we have seen a break back into the triangle and that we are almost at the apex (where the two line meets) of the triangle. For this count to remain on top, we need a powerful rally above 132.69 to take off now. If we do not see this rally and continues down towards 130.81 and break below here, the alternate count below becomes the preferred count. This count tells us, that we have only just begun wave C of an expanded flat correction, which calls for wave C down to 120.22.
Alternate Count EUR/JPY
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6464
R2: 164.05 - Important resistance - Break above here should accelerate the rally.
R1: 1.6368
Current Spot: 1.6362
S1: 1.6326
S2: 1.6267 - Important support - Break below here will question any further upside progress.
S3: 1.6239
Technical Summary:
We are closing in on point zero. Will we see a break above resistance at 1.6405 (my preferred scenario) for a continuation higher towards 1.6515 and 1.6987 or will we see a break below 1.6267 (alternate scenario) telling us, that the rally from 1.6071 only was a correction and that more downside is needed, for a break below 1.6071 and continuation down to 1.5872?
As said I still preferred the scenario calling for a break above 1.6405, which would call for a new test of resistance at 1.6515 and higher towards the inverted S/H/S target at 1.6987, but we need to see Prof. Until we have seen the final Prof we need to stay flexible.
what you think about usdjpy?is still inside of a big triangle?is intact your bulish cenario?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteBoth yes and no.
If the alternate EUR/JPY scenario plays out, we should also expect more donwside pressure in USD/JPY, and as the alternate Count for USD/JPY, the triangle could be that we saw wave A Down from 103.73 to 93.79 and since the 93.79 low a B-wave triangle has been unfolding and once finished we should see a new decline in wave C to something like 90.86, but only time wil tell.
Kind regards
EWS