Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 15 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.59

R2: 134.30

R1: 134.00 - Ideal target for red wave v

Current Spot: 133.59

S1: 133.35 - Important support. A break below here indicates that wave i of iii is done.

S2: 133.03

S3: 132.79  

Technical Summary

Red wave iv ended early and only corrected 23.6% of red wave iii. Ideally red wave v will end near 134.00 and that would at the same time end wave i of iii. Once this first wave of wave iii is in place, wave ii of iii will ideally take us lower towards 132.56 and possibly even lower towards 132.22 before the next rally higher.

Short term I expect important support at 133.35 to protect the downside for the test of the red wave v target near 134.00. However, a premature break below 133.35 indicates that red wave v is already in place and wave ii of iii is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6274 

R2: 1.6238

R1: 1.6198

Current Spot: 1.6161

S1: 1.6117

S2: 1.6071

S3: 1.6024 

Technical Summary:

The sideways consolidation was finally resolved with a break below support at 1.6219. The break below important support at 1.6219 has triggered a S/H/S formation calling for a continuation lower towards important long term support near 1.5872. However, the break below 1.6219 has also forced me to change my Elliott Wave count, which now shows, that wave iii ended at 1.6071 and wave iv ended at 1.6515 and we are currently in wave v lower towards the ideal corrective target near 1.5872 before we can expect the next major impulsive rally higher.

Short term resistance at 1.6198 will ideally protect the upside for the next decline towards 1.6072 and 1.6028 as the next minor targets.