AUD/USD
Has extended its rally higher towards the 50% retarcement of wave A, which comes in at 0.9714. The big question is whether we will see a continuation even higher towards the 61.8% retracement target at 0.9919 before the next major sell-off takes over.
Despite the extension my long term view remains the same, that we should soon see a new major sell-off and it's just a question of, from where the major wave C takes over for a decline towards at least 0.8065.
Short term a break below 0.9601 will be the first warning, that this B-wave rally is loosing momentum and a break below 0.9485 will indicate that wave C has taken over for a decline lower towards 0.8065.
Here too we are close to a top, but the Picture is completely different. The rally of the 0.7679 has been higher than first expected and has changed my medium term count, but not my long term expectation of a new major sell-off once this B-wave triangle is over.
My new long term Count suggest, that a B-wave triangle is developing and we are currently in c, which ideally will end between 0.8586 and 0.8625 for a decline in wave d towards 0.7955 before the final e-wave rally ends the triangle and the thrust out of the triangle to the downside should be expected.
Only a break above 0.8677 will invalidate the B-wave triangle a confirm a continuation higher towards 0.8843.
