Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Long term count.

Monthly

Weekly

 

Daily

 

 

GBP/USD (Cable)

The monthly chart shows my preferred long term Count. This Count shows, that a huge triangle is developing. We saw wave C of this triangle end at 1.3514 and is currently i wave D, which should continue higher towards 1.9335 over the coming years.

If we zoom (look at the weekly and daily charts) in on wave D, we can see a nice impulsive rally out of 1.3514 to 1.7042 as wave A of D. If we break Down wave A we will find, that wave 2 was a Deep correction, correcting 90% of wave 1. The following wave 3 became 2 times longer than wave 1 and the following wave 4 only corrected 23.6% of wave 3 alternating from the Deep wave 2 and finally a very small wave 5.

Since the A-wave top at 1.7042 we have seen wave B develop. This B-wave has turned into a complex triangle. We have just terminated wave d of this large B-wave triangle or is very close to terminate wave d. A break below important support at 1.5955 will indicate that wave d is over and the final wave e is developing. e waves of triangles is tricky as they can go all the way back to the triangle support-line or the can finish inside the triangle, but normally the relate to wave d with some Fibonacci relationship. Therefore the first target I will be looking for is the 38.2% retracement target at 1.5714 and then the 50% retracement target at 1.5546 and the 61.8% retracement target at 1.5377.

Once this final e wave comes to an end, we should be looking for a powerful thrust out of the triangle towards the upside for the long term target near 1.9335.