Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 3 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.00

R2: 133.49

R1: 132.97

Current Spot: 132.87

S1: 132.52

S2: 132.13

S3: 131.89 

Technical Summary:

The decline from 133.49 became much deeper than expected and has forced a recount of the short term picture. The bigger picture is still intact for a new impulsive wave higher towards 134.00 and 134.95 as the first target towards 137.45. 

Short term I'm looking for a break above 133.48 as indication that the new impulsive wave higher has begun and a break above 134.00 will confirm, that wave iii is developing for a continuation higher towards 134.95 and 137.45 longer term. 

The risk is a failure to break above 133.48 followed by a break below 132.13 as that would call for a decline towards a new low near 130.96. This is not the preferred outcome, but we will have to stay flexible.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6515

R2: 1.6473

R1: 1.6430

Current Spot: 1.6382

S1: 1.6366

S2: 1.6336

S1: 1.6316

Technical Summary:

Here too the decline from 1.6492 became deeper than expected. The deep decline did take some of the immediately bullishness out of the picture, but overall I'm looking for support at 1.6336 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6430 and more importantly a break above 1.6515, which calls for a impulsive rally higher towards 1.7000 and 1.7275 longer term.

The risk is a break below 1.6336 which will delay the upside pressure for a decline towards 1.6219, but that is not the preferred outcome.