Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 1 - 2013

I will have a very busy Schedule tomorrow and I will not be able to update as usual, therefore this late update.

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.22

R2: 134.05

R1: 133.83

Current Spot: 133.57

S1: 133.45

S2: 133.01

S3: 132.61

Technical Summary:

my new preferred count has worked out to perfection and red wave c of b is developing nicely. With the decline below 133.60 red wave c could end any time now. However, I'm  looking for minor resistance at 133.83 to protect the upside for one last decline towards 133.01 before red wave c of b is in place and the final rally higher towards 137.69 and maximum 138.39 will be seen.

Only a direct break above 134.20 indicates that red wave c already has finished and the final wave c of v is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6515

R2: 1.6487

R1: 1.6461

Current Spot: 1.6433

S1: 1.6390

S2: 1.6356

S1: 1.6312

Technical Summary:

Support at 1.6469 was broken without trouble and we are now close to the next target near 1.6390. We could still see a slightly deeper decline towards 1.6312 as long as resistance at 1.6485 protects the upside, before this wave ii is over and a new powerful rally higher towards 1.7424 is expected as wave iii develops. Longer term I'm still looking for much higher levels once this new impulsive rally really gets going. It should also be remembered, that wave three's is the wave we really want to be exposed to as this normally is the longest wave.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 31 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 136.27

R2: 135.76

R1: 135.27

Current Spot: 134.89

S1: 134.76

S2: 134.26

S3: 133.88

Technical Summary:

Having reviewed the price action since the mid-June low at 124.96, I have decided to shift my preferred count to the above. Instead of a triangle building we have seen a slow overlapping move higher and I think that an ending diagonal describes this move best. As can be seen we are currently in the last wave higher towards a maximum of 138.39 (wave iii can not be the shortest of the impulsive waves). Ending diagonal consist of three wave zig-zag's and of wave v we have only seen the first leg (wave a) of this zig-zag and is currently working on the b-wave, which is likely to be a flat correction. If this is correct, we will likely see a break below 134.76 indicating a decline to just below 133.60 before the final rally higher to finish wave iv of 5.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6727

R2: 1.6676

R1: 1.6644

Current Spot: 1.6612

S1: 1.6601

S2: 1.6559

S3: 1.6498 

Technical Summary:

After a very complex b-wave to 1.6726 we have begun a impulsive decline in wave c. This c wave of wave ii should at least decline to 1.6469 and could make it lower towards 1.6390 and maybe even 1.6312, but only time will show. For nowI'm looking for a break below 1.6585 and more importantly a break below 1.6559 to confirm, that the decline towards at least 1.6469 is developing. Until the break below 1.6585 has been seen, we could see a minor rally back towards 1.6651, but I would not bet on that outcome. For now I'm focused towards the downside as wave ii develops and are looking for acceleration lower, when support at 1.6585 breaks.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 30 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.76

R2: 135.32

R1: 135.01

Current Spot: 134.86

S1: 134.65

S2: 134.26

S3: 133.88

Technical Summary:

We continue to gain a little ground all the time, but not in a very convincing way. However, as I have done for the week, I will keep giving the upside the benefit of the doubt and expect a continuation higher towards 135.32 and 135.76 as long as support at 134.65 and more importantly as long as support at 134.26 protects the downside. Only a break below 134.26 will indicate, that a more complex correction is unfolding for a decline towards 133.25 and possibly even lower to 132.61. 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6800

R2: 1.6773

R1: 1.6723

Current Spot: 1.6646

S1: 1.6611

S2: 1.6572

S3: 1.6498

Technical Summary:

The rally from the 1.6057 low continues higher and we have seen 1.6723 tested, however, there are clearly a loss of momentum on this last rally higher, which does indicate that a top could be in place or be nearby. To confirm the top we need a break below 1.6611 and more importantly a break below 1.6572 that would call for a correction towards at least 1.6469 and possibly even lower towards 1.6390 and 1.6311. That said, we have to respect the ongoing uptrend as long as support at 1.6611 protects the downside, for a possible extension higher towards 1.6773.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 29 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.32

R2: 134.96

R1: 134.65

Current Spot: 134.40

S1: 134.29

S2: 133.88

S3: 133.60

Technical Summary:

We have not seen much action since yesterday and most of that action has been towards the downside. We have seen a break below minor support at 134.52 (the low has been 134.29), but important short term support still holds firm. As long as the support at 133.88 protects the downside we will be looking for a continuation higher. The first indication that a new rally is developing is a break above 134.65 and more importantly a break above 134.96, which confirms a new rally towards 135.32 and 135.50. 

However, the rally since the 133.60 low is not convincing, but we will keep giving the upside the benefit of the doubt until the market action tells us otherwise. 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6800

R2: 1.6736

R1: 1.6684

Current Spot: 1.6662

S1: 1.6617

S2: 1.6559

S3: 1.6498

Technical Summary:

Important short term support at 1.6559 held firm yesterday and protected the downside for a new rally towards the top at 1.6684. I'm still looking for a break below 1.6559 to confirm a deeper wave ii correction towards 1.6498 and likely lower towards 1.6444, but we have to accept, that as long as support at 1.6559 protects the downside the uptrend is intact and a possibility of a break above resistance at 1.6684 is a possibility, which will open for a continuation higher towards 1.6736. That said, I do prefer, that resistance at 1.6684 holds firm for the break below 1.6559.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 28 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.76

R2: 135.32

R1: 135.76

Current Spot: 134.72

S1: 134.52

S2: 133.88

S3: 133.60

Technical Summary:

We have seen a bottom at 133.88 (my target was at 133.89). The following rally is not yet the most convincing I have seen, but I will give it the benefit of my doubt as long as minor support at 134.52 and more importantly support at 133.88 protects the downside. Short term I'm looking for a break above 134.96 which indicates a continuation higher towards 135.32 and 135.76 as the next targets. A break below 134.52 will be frustrating, but only a break below 133.88 and more importantly a break below 133.60 will invalidate my bullish scenario and indicate, that a much more complex correction is unfolding.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6740

R2: 1.6684

R1: 1.6654

Current Spot: 1.6623

S1: 1.6559

S2: 1.6498

S3: 1.6444

Technical Summary:

There was no time for a correction Friday as we continued directly higher to the next resistance at 1.6685 (we have seen 1.6684 as the high for now). However, I still think that we should soon see wave ii unfold, but to confirm, that wave ii is unfolding we need a break below 1.6559, that would call for a continuation lower towards 1.6498 and 1.6444 before the ideal wave ii target near 1.6325. That said, we have to be aware, that as long as support at 1.6559 protects the downside we could see a continuation directly higher towards 1.6740 if wave i extends even more.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 25 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.79

R2: 134.52

R1: 134.31

Current Spot: 134.16

S1: 133.89

S2: 133.60 - Important short term support.

S3: 133.33

Technical Summary:

I continue to expect, that short term minor support at 133.89 will protect the downside for a break above 134.31 and more importantly a break above 134.52, which confirms a new test of 134.79 and a break here confirms that green wave iii is developing for a rally higher towards 135.26 and 136.08.

However, a break below 133.89 will frustrate the bullish picture, but only a break below important support at 133.60 will invalidate the bullish count and indicate, that a much more complex correction is unfolding  for a decline towards 133.30 and likely even 132.61, before higher again.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6740

R2: 1.6685

R1: 1.6618

Current Spot: 1.6591

S1: 1.6544

S2: 1.6498

S2: 1.6455

Technical Summary:

We have reached my target area between 1.6608 and 1.6618 (as the high we have seen 1.6615). I'm now looking for a break below 1.6544 to indicate, that wave i is done and wave ii is developing for a decline towards at least 1.6498 and more likely a deeper correction towards 1.6397, which a break below 1.6498 will confirm.

However, as long as minor support at 1.6544 protects the downside we could see a continuation higher, but we have seen a clear short term loss of momentum, which indicates, that we are close to a top for wave i.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 24 - 2013

EUR/JPY

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.76

R2: 135.50

R1: 134.79

Current Spot: 134.26

S1: 133.89

S2: 133.60

S3: 133.33 

Technical Summary:

After a scary deep correction to 133.60 (100% of green wave i) yesterday I'm looking for a new impulsive rally to develop. Short term I expect minor support at 133.89 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 134.79, which confirms a continuation higher towards at least 135.26 and likely even higher towards 136.08 as wave iii progresses.

However, at no time can a break below 133.60 be allowed as that would indicate, that a very complex correction is unfolding and will delay the upside progress for a decline to 133.30 and likely even closer to 132.61 before a new rally can be expected.



EUR/NZD

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6740

R2: 1.6685

R1: 1.6608 - Likely target for wave i of the new impulsive uptrend

Current Spot: 1.6578

S1: 1.6518

S2: 1.6475

S3: 1.6397

Technical Summary:

With a clear break above 1.6518 all doubts about this rally has been removed. A new impulsive rally is clearly developing. Looking at the structure from 1.6057 it's now in five waves, which indicates, that wave i of the new impulsive rally is near its top. I'm looking for a top in the 1.6608 - 1.6618 area from where wave ii towards at least 1.6478 but more likely we will see a deeper wave ii correction towards 1.6397 from where we should see wave iii higher take over. That said we have to remember, that we are looking for a wave ii correction and wave ii corrections are allowed to correct 100% of wave i.

Only a clear break above 1.6618 will call for a continuation higher towards 1.6685 and maybe even 1.6740, but that is not my preferred count at this point.



Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 23 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.76

R2: 135.32

R1: 135.05

Current Spot: 134.78

S1: 134.55

S2: 134.10

S1: 133.60

Technical Summary:

We finally saw some acceleration higher as wave iii is getting under way. That said, we expect even more acceleration higher and once we clear 136.00 this wave iii should really take of. Short term we expect support at 134.55 and more importantly 134.10 to protect the downside for the next rally towards 135.76 and higher. A break below support at 134.10 will be frustrating, but only a break below 133.60 will indicate, that the rally of the 132.61 low only was part of a complex correction and a new decline below 132.61 should be seen.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6406

R2: 1.6356

R1: 1.6300

Current Spot: 1.6297

S1: 1.6265

S2: 1.6230

S3: 1.6196

Technical Summary:

We have seen an unexpected rally above important resistance at 1.6233, which tells me, that blue wave v became an fifth wave failure (no new low was seen), that also means, that we have likely seen the low of the expanded flat correction, which has been developing since early August. Short term we should meet resistance at 1.6300, but it will likely not hold for long and once broken we should see a continuation higher towards 1.6381 and 1.6406. Longer term I'm looking for a break above 1.6518 to confirm, that wave C of the expanded flat correction is indeed over and that a new impulsive rally is developing. If we do not break above 1.6518 we could be developing a large ending diagonal, which could take many weeks to finish and that will keep the 1.5872 target alive.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 22 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.76

R2: 134.95

R1: 134.50

Current Spot: 134.38

S1: 134.18

S2: 133.60

S3: 133.33

Technical Summary:

We keep gaining ground, but we still lack acceleration towards the upside, which we normally would expect during wave iii, but then we are still only in the early stages of wave iii and therefore the expected acceleration can take place any time.

Short term I would like to see support at 134.18 protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 134.95 and higher towards our next target at 135.76. If however, we does see a break below support at 134.18 we will find the next minor support at 134.03, but at no time should we trade below 133.60 as that would delay the expected rally higher.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6263

R2: 1.6233

R1: 1.6211

Current Spot: 1.6177

S1: 1.6120

S2: 1.6057

S3: 1.6017

Technical Summary:

With the break above minor resistance at 1.6136 we knew that blue wave iv would extend higher towards 1.6183 and possibly even 1.6211 before blue wave v will be ready to take over, for the final decline towards 1.5872 where we expect wave C of the large expanding flat correction, which began from 1.7153 in early August. However, to end. 

A break below 1.6120 will confirm that blue wave iv is over and blue wave v lower is developing. At no point should we see a break above resistance at 1.6233 as that would indicate, that wave C of the expanded flat correction is already in place.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for October 21 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.05

R2: 134.55

R1: 134.18

Current Spot: 133.97

S1: 133.60

S2: 133.33

S3: 132.96

Technical Summary:

With the break below short term support at 133.84 we have seen a correction lower to 133.60 and we could still see a slightly deeper correction towards 133.57 and maybe even 133.33 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 135.76 and possibly higher towards 137.70 in wave iii of iii takes off. Only a break below important support at 132.61 will invalidate the bullish count and indicate, that a much more complex correction is unfolding for a decline towards 131.52 before up again.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6233

R2: 1.6173

R1: 1.6136

Current Spot: 1.6104

S1: 1.6081

S2: 1.6057

S3: 1.6017 

Technical Summary:

Ideally we will now see minor resistance at 1.6136 protect the upside for a break below minor support at 1.6081 and more importantly a break below 1.6057, which confirms a continuation lower towards 1.6017 on the way to the ideal target at 1.5872 where this ongoing wave C finally comes to an end and a new impulsive rally will take over for a new rally to 172.74 and higher. 

A break above minor resistance at 1.6136 will indicate, that a more complex blue wave iv is unfolding as a running triangle, but it should trade below resistance at 1.6173 for the break below 1.6057 and lower. A break above 1.6173 will be of concern and a break above 1.6183 and more importantly a break above 1.6233 will indicate that wave C is already in place and the new impulsive rally higher already has begun.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold and Crude Oil

Gold

The clear break back above the S/H/S neckline has invalidated this formation, but then what's going on here?

We know that the rally from 1,180.20 is corrective (in three waves) so we haven't begun any new impulsive rally higher. So that leave us with a only the option of this correction becoming more complex. I will be looking for some kind of zig-zag rally higher, but in a wave four triangle, which will likely cause a top near 1,400 in wave c before lower in wave d.

If the triangle Count is correct we could be in holding pattern for many weeks to come.

Crude Oil

Keeps move lower and we likely only need one last decline closer to 99.88, before the correction from 112.22 is finally over and the final impulsive rally higher towards 116.25 and possibly even higher towards 126.29 if wave 5 extends.

The only demand I have to this decline is, that it does not break below the top of wave 1 at 97.36.