Elliott wave analysis of Gold and Crude Oil

Gold

The clear break back above the S/H/S neckline has invalidated this formation, but then what's going on here?

We know that the rally from 1,180.20 is corrective (in three waves) so we haven't begun any new impulsive rally higher. So that leave us with a only the option of this correction becoming more complex. I will be looking for some kind of zig-zag rally higher, but in a wave four triangle, which will likely cause a top near 1,400 in wave c before lower in wave d.

If the triangle Count is correct we could be in holding pattern for many weeks to come.

Crude Oil

Keeps move lower and we likely only need one last decline closer to 99.88, before the correction from 112.22 is finally over and the final impulsive rally higher towards 116.25 and possibly even higher towards 126.29 if wave 5 extends.

The only demand I have to this decline is, that it does not break below the top of wave 1 at 97.36.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold and Crude Oil

Gold

 

Is just above the important S/H/S neckline at 1,277 and a break below call for a decline towards 1,149 in red wave v and Black wave iii. Once Black wave iii is done near 1,149 we should expect a new mini rally back towards the top of red wave iv near 1,433 and then a final decline in Black wave v to end wave C of the major A-B-C decline from 1,920.

 



Crude Oil Weekly

Crude oil Hourly

 

Crude Oil

 

Wave ii became deeper than expected, but held well above important support at 101.04 and I'm now looking for a break above important short term resistance at 104.37, that will confirm wave iii higher towards at least 106.64 and possibly higher towards 107.70 (the double bottom target).

Short term I would like to see 102.10 protect the downside for the rally above 103.58 and more importantly above 104.37, for an acceleration higher.