Elliott wave analysis on GBP/USD - Bullish and Bearish case

 

GBP/USD - Bullish Scenario

 

I have for some time now present the above scenario as my preferred count. I still think this is the best way to describe the price-action all the way back to 1971.

 

That means we are likely in a B-wave triangle, which ultimately will break towards the upside for a huge rally towards at least 1.8800 before the next decline sets in.

It has been very difficult to decipher the price-action since mid-2012, the reason for that might be because an E-wave triangle has developed or still is developing, but once this E-wave triangle is finished we should see a powerful thrust out of the triangle towards the upside.

A close above the triangle resistance line at 1.6301 will indicate, that the triangle is finished and the thrust higher is underway.



 

GBP/USD - Bearish Scenario

 

I have worked with this option too, until I took a view on the long term count a changed my preferred count to the above. However, the bearish count is a valid count until a break above 1.6747 confirms the bullish count as the correct count. On the other hand a break below the triangle support line at 1.5745 and more importantly a break below 1.5268 will confirm the bearish scenario and call for a decline to below 1.3514. As long as we are within the triangle boundaries the price-action will be rather erratic and trades should only be taken close to the support- or resistance line with as close stops as possible.