EUR/JPY
The wave iv correction from 120.71 should be over and we are now looking for a rally past minor resistance at 120.24 to confirm that assumption for the last rally higher towards 120.71 and the ideal target near 121.28. That said, we should be aware, that the hole impulsive rally from 100.32 is coming to and end and a much bigger correction is looming. The coming wave 4 correction should at least give us a correction down to 113.54, which marks the bottom of wave four of a lessor degree. This is a very common target and will at the same time be very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci target. However, for now we should keep focus towards the upside for one last rally higher.
EUR/NZD
We have likely seen the bottom of green wave ii at 1.5813 and we are now looking for a break above 1.5907 as the first indication. that the bottom is in place. However, we will need a break above 1.5947 to confirm that bottom and to confirm the next rally higher towards 1.6054 and beyond towards 1.6267. As long as minor resistance at 1.5907 protects the upside we must allow for a little more downside, but we can not go below 1.5780 under any circumstance, as that would invalidate our count and call for a decline to at least 1.5703.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteNow that GBP has dropped below its recent low are you by chance more bearish? I realize the currency is getting closer to the longterm trendline. But, the drop of wave 3 here has been prety strong.
Looking forward to your thoughts.
Hi Todd,
ReplyDeleteSorry, but no I'm not more bearish than I was before. I still regard the decline from 1.6381 as a correction and expect a new rally higher any time now.
Looking at the decline you had wave a from 1.6381 down to 1.6009 followed by an expande flat wave b to 1.6177 and then wave c down to 1.5806. Wave c is equal in length to wave a.
I will now be looking for a rally above 1.6009 and more importantly a break above 1.6177 to confirm that the correction is over and the next test of strong resistance at 1.6380 building.
Kind regards
EWS
What do you think about gbp/yen accoridng to gbp/usd it will drag it towards 141.80 area which is clearly a bull or bear point right now. but I think it will remain under pressure. till it is trading below 1.6054
ReplyDeleteRegards
Hi Arora,
ReplyDeleteI agree. A break above 141.80 will be the first good indication, that a bottom is in place for the next rally higher. However, as long as resistance at 141.80 protects the upside we must allow for a deeper correction towards 139.39 before the correction from 144.18 is finally over.
Kind regards
EWS