EUR/JPY
With the break below important support at 117.65 we where given the signal, that wave 3 ended at 120.12 and wave 4 is developing. So what can we expect from the ongoing wave 4? Wave 4 is correcting wave 3 and as wave 3 was an extended wave we should not be looking for a correction deeper than the 38.2% correction target, which comes in at 112.56. I normally expect wave 4 to alternate from wave 2, so looking at wave 2 we can see, that it was a big flat correction, which means wave 4 will likely be a simple zig-zag correction. Zig-zag correction is made up of three waves A-B and C, where wave A and C are in five waves and wave B corrects wave A and is in three waves. The decline from 120.12 can be counted in five waves, which means, that wave A already is finished or is very close to its bottom and wave B should take us up to at least 118.49 and likely even to 118.72, where we will find the 61.8% correction target of wave A. Once wave B is over we can calculate the targets for wave C with the first likely target coming in at 115.45.
EUR/NZD
As minor resistance at 1.5926 protected the upside for a break below 1.5837 I was now looking for a more normal correction towards 1.5797, which already has been tested. That means we could have seen the bottom of blue wave ii. If blue wave ii have finished we should soon see a break above 1.5858 and more importantly a break above 1.5926 for a new rally above 1.5977 towards at least 1.6267 and likely even higher towards 1.6559, where blue wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than blue wave i. Short term the risk is, that minor resistance at 1.5858 protects the upside for an even deeper correction towards 1.5749 and maybe down to the 61.8% correction target at 1.5686 if wave c of blue wave ii extends.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the USD/GBP is putting in a flat, followed by the 5 wave impulse down? My other thoughts is it put in a wave 2 on January 10th and we are seeing a 1-2, 1-2 on the 4 hour to the down side and breaking into wave 3 right now.
Hi Todd
ReplyDeleteYou know I'm looking for a break towards the upside and as long as we are inside the big triangle I think the price-action is pretty erratic and can easily look impulsive both ways.
If however, we do break below the triangle support line I will have no problem admitting that I was wrong and will change my count accordingly, but within the triangle borders I do thing every move is correctiv. This goes for the current decline to.
You ask me if it could be a wave 3 down. Yes it's possible, but it's still in an A-wave or a C-wave in a correctiv decline. I does not see anything impulsive in the current moves either up or down, but it will come and when it comes we shall have lots of clues.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks for such a lengthy response. Please let me know if there is something I can do for you to help your blog. I am grateful for your free information.
ReplyDeleteOh. One other question. What kind of charting are you using? On Oct 24th, the Facebook high I have is 24.25, but I see yours must include premarket or something different because your charts show around 25 for the high that day. (Which of course changes the trendline. Also, my trendlines for the USD/GBP are different than yours.
ReplyDeleteHi Todd,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much. It is much appreciated.
I'm useing a charting system called NetStation.
Kind regards
EWS