Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil - The Bearish and the Bullish case

Crude Oil - Bearish option

 

 

Since early 2011 Crude oil has been locked into a USD 30 range between 80 - 110. None of the moves within this range, has really given us any clue, which way this market will eventually break. therefore I will present both cases. The bearish case first (but at this time neutral in my view and will let the market show me, what way it wants to break eventually).

The bearish case sees the entire rally from early 2011 as a major B-wave Triangle, which could push to slightly above 100 before down. A break above minor resistance at 94.00 will confirm the rally higher towards 100. To confirm a downside break we need to see a daily close below 84.07 and more importantly below 77.29, which will call for a major decline in the months ahead.

 

Crude Oil - Bullish Case

 

 

Here too a Triangle dominates the picture, but in this case it's a X-wave Triangle calling for a break above 110.56 eventually to confirm a major rally the months ahead. However in this case we will see a rally to just above 100 before on last decline in wave e to end the Triangle and then the final thrust out of the Triangle to the upside towards 140.00.

 

As I said above right now I don't have a preference for which way the next big move will be. This market will show me, when the time is right....