EUR/JPY
With the clear break below 113.99 we have got confirmation, that wave 4 is indeed developing. As a minimum target for this wave 4, I expect it to correct 23.6% of wave 3, which should take us down to 112.30, that is a common corrective target for an extended wave. However, for the short term I'm looking for a small rally towards the 114.58 - 114.61 area as a b-wave and then a final c-wave down to 112.30 from where I will turn our focus towards the upside again. That said, we shall remember that 4 waves often is very complex in their structure, which easily could be the case here too.
EUR/NZD
The red wave ii correction did go for the slightly deeper corrective target near 1.5671, where it would have corrected 70.7% of red wave i. The 70.7% corrective target is pretty common in the FX-market. With a low at 1.5688 I do think the red wave ii correction is over and a new rally just ahead. However, we still need a break above 1.5908 and more importantly 1.5988 to confirm that a low has been seen. For the short term we will likely see minor support in the 1.5776 - 1.5786 area protect the downside for a break above 1.5835, which would call for a rally higher towards at least 1.5892 and possibly even higher towards the all important resistance at 1.5988. The risk is a break below 1.5738, that would call for a move closer to 1.5671 before we can expect a new rally higher.
In short term to eurjpy make new highs its important to rise above 114.70!!!If reject this resistence zone it makes a H&S chart pattern then heavy down!!
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteYes it could look like a S/H/S top, but it does not point heavy down.
I'm pretty sure this potential topping pattern will fail or be cancelled somehow, but time will show.
Regards
EWS
Hello i am looking every day your blog, i like it, i see some times you are not calculating time corrections in your count but you are doing very good job. Congrats. Here i thing it will fall till the channel from your picture from Technical point of view Wave 4 must hit or spike the channel - 110.00 which is also 38.2 Fibo.
ReplyDeleteHi Petar,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much.
You could well be right in your call for a decline to the 38.2% fibo target. However in I have often seen corrention only retrace 23.6% of the extended wave, which i why I have only called for a correction to 112.30.
Time and form will tell us, which correctiv target will be correct.
Regarding time I have not found anything that works for me and when I try to figure out the time aspect I'm always wrong, therefore you will seldom hear anything about the time aspevt from me.
Kind regards
EWS
EWS- Keep up the great work. This weeks EU shakeout was a rough one-- but an interesting one. 1.3657
ReplyDeleteHello, 1 month ago I started to read this blog and I'm taking it seriously, which means that I appreciate this kind of analyses. I have question about eur/nzd: as I can see you're bullish on this for long term (me also), so can eur/nzd and usd/chf move up or in the same direction for long term? From your last analyses on usd/chf I see that you expect long term bull market here same as eur/nzd. But if eur/usd starts to fall sharply from let say 1.38 may we expect further rise at eur/nzd?
ReplyDeletethanks
Hi Marjan,
ReplyDeleteI never look at the currency pairs together trying to figure out what one pair will do if this pair does so. The correlation can be very very strong between the pairs, but for whatever reason it can without warning suddenly fail for a period or even all together disappear.
So my approach is to look at each currency pair on its own analyzing it an draw my conclusions from that. That may give my a set-up where I'm looking for EUR/USD going up at the same time as USD/CHF is going up, but is that impossible? NO! That just means the EUR/CHF will rise too and it's possible.
That said, it could as easily mean, that I'm wrong about one of the pairs, but I normally know when I wrong (if a certain level is broken) and then correct my wrong count. We can't be right all the time, but as long as we know when we are wrong much has already been gained...
It would say, if EUR/USD goes to 1.38, then you will see EUR/NZD rise further.
Kind regards
EWS
thanks for quick and precise answer. I agree about the bull run at EUR as a currency because EU is recovering from the PIIGS crises and no news from Europe is good news. I expect rise of eur/aud, too. About correlations -we already saw the gold and USD going in same way in past 2 months so correlations are not eternal. So if eur and usd starts appreciating against chf that means that swiss franc is in deep trouble.
ReplyDeletethanks again and keep up with good work