EUR/JPY
There was no time for even a minor set-back yesterday. With the clear break above 115.55 we had the signal, that an important bottom was in place at 113.55 and the next rally higher had begun. Breaking above the former high at 115.99 was no problem at all and even our next target at 117.90 was broken without any trouble, which makes me conclude that this powerful rally has much more upside to cover. Therefor I have changed my count to an even more bullish count. Instead of the 115.99 high being wave 3 it is more likely, that it was only wave iii of 3 and wave iv of 3 ended at 113.55 and we are now headed higher in wave v of 3. The targets for this wave v rally is at 119.50, where wave v will be 38.2% of length of the rally from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii. However, we could see a move higher towards the 50% target of the length of the rally from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii, which would take up to 121.34. This target would make sense as it will also represent an extension of wave 3 of 200% of wave 1. Short term we could see a minor decline to 117.51 and maybe even down to 116.85, but from there the next rally higher towards 119.50 should be seen.
EUR/NZD
The odds clearly favor, that we have seen the bottom of red wave ii at 1.5506 and we should turn our focus towards the next resistance level to break, which is at 1.5841. A break above resistance at 1.5841 will confirm the bottom and call for a continuation higher towards 1.6010 and later on beyond 1.6218. The extremely deep correction in red wave ii was a bit unusual, but second waves are allowed to retrace all of the first wave, but they can never break below the bottom of the first wave, that meant we had a very clear last line of defence in 1.5445. We should also remember, that we had a "Hidden Divergence", which was validated with the break above 1.5714 and that normally tells me, that the coming rally will be very powerful, so be ready for it.
EWS,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts that the DX (USD) just finish an abc to the down side (wave 2)on the daily with an impulse wave up topping on Jan 3rd from the mid December low?
EWS,
ReplyDeleteActually, I am more interested in your thoughts on the USD/GBP. Being that the Pound had a 5 wave down recently and has now retraced roughly 50% I am thinking the odds are for further downside rather than a break above the recent high.
Hi Todd
ReplyDeleteYes you have just seen a five wave decline from 1.6381, but in my view that wave the c-wave of an expanded flat correction and I will bet on a new rally rather than a decline.
I will update GBP/USD later today or during the weekend.
Kind regards
EWS
HI T
ReplyDeleteWas real pleasure trading eur/jpy been waiting patiently for a week for it start going further aff after cliff rumours. Yes Even I am very desperate to know regarding gbp/usd . Usd/chf and eur/usd are trading indpendently today which means eur/chf can go further up nice to see there is no negative correlation between them as you explain that it could disappear any time. which is a good hint that SNB is moving out and eur/usd can rally in coming weeks .
Regards
Hi EWS:
ReplyDeleteYesterday I was reading your last EURUSD posts, and I think there another count possibility. This one: http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/33135/eurusd-w1-metaquotes-software-corp
Hi Manuel,
ReplyDeleteI agree, we should not be blind regarding the upside and there is a very real risk at we will EUR/USD much higher.
That said I think you count is wrong a triangle as wave 2 I have never seen it and don't believe I ever will.
Triangles tell you, that the will be one more move in the direction of the trend and then a trendreversal. Therefore if you count is correct it will have to be a B-wave, but the implications is pretty much the same as wave C can be as dynamic and powerful as a thrid wave can be.
I don't think you should give up your count, but just relable it. Time will show us, what count will be the correct one.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks a lot EWS, time will show us.
DeleteI agree sir but for the time being I am looking at gbp/usd triangle with a look at 1.7090 at least and then I am looking for a reversal as lot of people said that this is wave 4th triangle but I am looking it at wave B trianlge and time will tell and as long as you are posting you get anywhere it go but whatever happens move in the direction on the upsid and then down but noway wave 2 of traingle as larger degree because it will be total blast as wave 3rd kicks off .
ReplyDeleteI am also very desperate to see eur/nzd get out of that channel.
Regards
Aman
Thanks for your reply EWS. Will your opinion change if the GBP/USD breaks below 1.60? Would that end the uptrend?
ReplyDeleteHi Mr.T
ReplyDeleteYou mention 70.7 fibo level allot in your charts is there any other levels that are commonly used
Great Respect and love to read your analysis daily
jt
Hi John T.
ReplyDeleteThe 70.7% retracement target is not a Fibonacci target, but I have noticed it to be hit a lot, when speaking about currencies and therefore is worth knowing.
I have seen many examples of analytics think, that a break below the 61.8% will call for a back towards the 100% retracement and that's not always the case in the FX-world.
No I don't have any other special retreacement targets I look for.
Kind regards
EWS