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Thursday, January 17, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY
 
The 4-wave correction is developing nicely. Wave A of the simple zig-zag correction, that we are looking for ended at 116.47 and was followed by a minimum length wave B. This wave B only corrected 38.2% of wave a and ended at 118.20. With wave A and B in place we can calculate the most likely ending point for wave C, which is at 114.57, where wave C with equal wave A in length. Normally we expect wave 4 to be complex in its structure, but as we had a big flat wave 2, we expect wave 4 to be a simple zig-zag correction due to the Elliott Wave Principle of alternation. Once this wave 4 is over we are looking for the final move higher in the sequence from 94.10. The first target for this wave final wave is at 124.55, if we do see wave 4 ending at 114.57.
 

EUR/NZD
 
I do think that blue wave ii have terminated or is very close to terminate, however a break above 1.5868 is needed to confirm that for the next rally higher towards resistance at 1.5977, which should be broken without much trouble next time, for a continuation higher towards 1.6267, which is the minimum target for blue wave iii. That said, as long as minor resistance at 1.5868 is protecting the upside, there is a risk of a slightly deeper correction towards 1.5742 before this blue wave ii correction finally terminates and blue wave iii takes over.  

3 comments:

  1. Hi Elliott!

    Thank you very much for your analysis, I believe they are great!

    Regarding EURJPY, I see 118,66 at this moment, does it mean we are still on wave B and wave C target needs to be re-calculated?

    Please excuse my lack of knowledge, I am quite a beginner on this matter.

    Many thanks!

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  2. its very rarely seen move because now wave b of a zigzag has entered into 61.8% area and if it reached more than 119.30 then it might have corrected more than 80% of the move which means there would a possibility of flat correction or you still think wave 3 is still on its wave.

    But How many times have you seen an extended wave 3 and and triangle in wave B of a zigzag correction and I wonder if there a possibility here. But usd/jpy is also entered the same area as eur/yen trading together the same

    Regards
    Aman

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  3. Hi Potxotxo and Aman,

    The move above 118.66 is very unexpected, as it hasn't even corrected to the absolut minimum corrective target at 115,45 (the 23.6% Fibonacci target). That could mean we are looking at an X-wave, which should be followed by a new decline once its over. IF it's an X-wave is should not go beyond the top at 120.12.
    A break above 120.12 will change the count towards a finished wave 4 and call for the next rally higher in wave 5.

    The other possible outcome is, that a triangle is forming, but it's way to early to tell.

    So we have to go with the evidence we have at the moment.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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