The powerful rally yesterday clearly showed us, that we where looking at a wave iv correction and that one more new high was needed. We have already seen this new high with the test of 121.30, which is just two small pips above our ideal target. So we could have the top of wave 3 in place with the test of 121.30, but to confirm that we need a decline below 120.08 and more importantly a break below 119.25. That said we know, that we are getting close to the top of wave 3 if have not seen it already. However, as long as we have not seen a break below 120.08 we must accept the risk of a move a little higher towards the 121.66 - 121.77 area before the top is finally in place. What can we expect from the coming wave 4. The absolute minimum would be a 23.6% correction down to 116.35, while a more normal correction would take us down to the 38.2% corrective target at 113.29. Time will show us which target is the correct one.
With the break above minor resistance at 1.5836 and more importantly the break above resistance at 1.5855 we knew that the expanded flat correction had finished already with the low at 1.5750 and that the blue wave iii higher had already begun. The first target for this blue wave iii is at 1.6054, but we expect this blue wave iii to extend, which calls for a continuation higher towards 1.6218 and more likely 1.6500 before blue wave iii is likely over. Short term we can expect support at 1.5930, which will ideal protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 1.6054. However if we see a break below 1.5930 we must allow for a decline to 1.5904 before the next move higher. At no point should we see a decline below 1.5836 as that would leave us with a none impulsive move up from 1.5750.
First of all thanks for your posts and further I would like to ask eur/jpy there are too many possiblities But I am expecting a decline because exactly at 121.30 wave 3 is 2 times bigger than wave 1 and also 3rd wave has extended as we all know above 1.618 but usd/jpy is still looking at highs around 91.80 where it will met the target of 3rd wave extension and eur is already bullish so one of the should be bear in order for eur/jpy to move . Whats your view about that ..
ReplyDeleteAnd one more thing You apple counts was fabulous You need a round of applause exactly 450 is the yesterday and its looking much much lower as apple has posted the worst profits since last 3 years ............So I would to leave the updated chart of Apple as I got enterd at 505 and TP was set 460 which hit automatically when par gapped lower yesterday.
Thanks and regards
Sorry it is I love to see the updated chart of Apple if there is a long term downtrend has started
DeleteApologies
Hi Mr.T
ReplyDeleteHave you any veiw on GBP/USD looks like 3rd wave down complete on daily at 161.8 fibo do you think a pullback to 1.5990 level befor down
Best Regards JT
Hi Aman,
ReplyDeleteRegarding EUR/JPY the uptrend stays intact untill we sees a break below support at 120.66.
I'm looking for a top in the current area, but where and when is the question, but I don't think we should expect much more upside.
I will update the Apple chart later today.
Thank you for the Applause ;o)
Kind regards
EWS
Hello EWS:
ReplyDeleteAnalyzing the chart of EURJPY, must we think that the move from 117.48 up to date, ie the last movement, is the v of 3?
Normally the movement v is 50% of the movement from i to iii .. In this case, from 100.319 to 120.115 ..., therefore v should be 126.675 or not?
Thanks and regards
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteI think we are very close to a bottom in Cable and a brewk above 1.5821 confirms a rally to strong short term resistance at 1.5900 and most likely higher towards 1.5990 as you say. However be aware of a break above 1.5990 as that will indicate a bottom and a new rally higher.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Manuel,
ReplyDeleteIt's absolutly a possiblity. However, you should be aware of the 38.2% target too, which comes in at 124.08 as a possible target too.
The clear break above 121.31 does indicate and continuation of wave iii higher towards the next target at 124.08 and possibly even your target at 126.68.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks for your insight and your veiws and you have a Great weekend EWS look forward ton your next post
ReplyDeleteRegards John
Hi T thanks
ReplyDeleteBut eur/yen spike is normal because fundamentals are on its way to spike euro but how would you rate that gbp lagging behind and I know it will recover and also weekly trendline is at 1.5745 and bounce was expected but did it clear the way for a move higher still towards as long as is support or I am expecting another ABC leg towards 1.5700 area from 1.6054 area because this is not an impulsive rally look like corrective.
Regads
Hi Aman,
ReplyDeleteThe rally from 1.5746 to 1.5827 is clearly impulsive in character. It could of cause be a c-wave of an expanded flat correction, but I doubt this is the case.
I would look for a correction down to the 1.5777 - 1.5787 area and this area protects the downside for a new rally above 1.5827 I beleive you have seen the first very good indication, that the correction from 1.6318 is over.
In my view buying in the 1.5777 - 1.5787 area or a break above 1.5827 with a stop at 1.5740 would be a low risk opportunity.
That said we need a break above 1.5894 and more importantly a break above 1.5990 to confirm the bottom and the next rally higher towards 1.6318 and likely much higher.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWS:
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for your posts and your comments, all of them are brilliant....
Happy week end