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Friday, August 24, 2012

GBP/JPY long term Elliott wave analysis



GBP/JPY - I have had an request to look at GBP against JPY. When I analysis a cross-rate I normally don't look at, I always begin looking at the big picture. The longer back I can come the better. Therefore I will normally start looking at the monthly chart and then zoom in on the price-action down to the 4 hourly chart or lower.
I have added some text to the monthly and weekly charts, so please take a look at them first.
My preferred count (shown on the charts) points to an important bottom being in place and that we should soon see a major rally higher. If this view is correct we should soon see a break above resistance at 125.82 for a rally higher towards at least 129.81.
Short term I would expect support at 128.08 would protect the downside for a break above 125.00 for a test of important resistance at 125.82 and most likely a break above this time.
My long term target is a rally back to the top of wave A at 163.08 so in that context we are only at the very beginning of a major new rally.
What would bring by bullish view in jeopardy? a break below 123.25 would make me suspicious, while a break below 121.07 would have me to really reconsider whether the bottom is in place or not.

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