EUR/USD - Blue wave b has extended and could see us a little lower towards 1.2166 before blue wave c takes over for a rally towards the 1.2522 - 1.2566 area. Once the rally from 1.2044 is over, I expect it will only mark the first part of a more complex correction.
USD/JPY - The structure finally begins to show some impulsive characters. That said it is still very early and a break above 79.41 is need to confirm, that the correction from 80.59 is over.
The risk is still a break below 77.65 that will invalidate my count.
GBP/USD - Here too does we see a possible impulsive structure. If the count above is right, then we should see a small lift higher towards 1.5584 in blue wave iv followed by a decline towards 1.5454 in blue wave v, which will mark red wave iii.
The risk is a break back above 1.5670 that will call for a new test of 1.5767 on the way higher towards 1.5905.
NZD/USD - With a high at 0.8142 just below the ideal target for this wave c of Y we should be ready for the next deep decline. That said we are only in the very early parts of, what might be a new decline, and I would like to see a break below 0.8060 before being more confident in calling the top. A break below support at 80.60 will call for a decline towards 0.7798 again.
EUR/JPY - The price-action since yesterday has been very shallow, which does open up for one more decline closer to 95.33, before blue wave ii is finally over, but from 95.33 or upon a direct break above 96.45 we should see the next rally higher towards the 100.63 - 100.73 area.
EUR/NZD - The bottoming process is still ongoing. With a new low at 1.5070 we still could see a decline towards 1.5045 before the bottom is finally in place. From 1.5045 or upon a break above 1.5225 we should see a new rally towards 1.5505 and only a break above here will confirm the bottom for a much higher rally towards the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - The decline from 13,089.96 does lack impulsiveness, but we are only in the very beginning of wave 3 down, if the top is in place. The first wave of a new impulsive rally or decline is always the most difficult to read. We need a break below 12,821 and more importantly 12,762 to confirm the top for a break below 12.450 on the way towards at least 11,430.
However as long as support at 12,821 protects the upside we could see one last rally towards 13,170.
Gold - Even though we intra day broke slightly above 1,624.70 we never saw a close above here, which does open the possibility, that wave e and the B-wave triangle could be finished. However I slightly more prefer that the rally to 1,629.10 only marked the end of wave c and we should now see a decline towards the 1,570 area in wave d and then a final minor rally in wave e towards the 1.600 - 1.610 before the triangle finally is over and the next challenge of important support at 1,521 is seen.
Invalidation for this count is a break above 1,629.10
Crude Oil - Here I'm still looking for a break below 87.31 and more importantly 86.74 to confirm the next decline towards 82.47 and longer term a decline towards the 72.00 area.
A break above 90.30 will delay the decline for one more rally higher towards 91.48 before down.
Hello Ews,
ReplyDeleteEur/usd - the blue wave "a" could be at 1.240 area the recent high?
If it is it has surely finished blue wave b at 1.2130 area.
Thus we are going for blue wave C which should be higher than 1.210 area!
( The blue wave a in above graph is actually wave B of a irregular correction according to my count in 15m chart ! )
Your follower,
Ray.
^Higher than 1.24
DeleteYour call on the DOW has been uncanny for some time now. Is today's action, August 3rd, appear to be the final push up before the next wave down, and is there some sort of apx time frame for the downturn to unfold? Thank you again.
ReplyDelete