EUR/USD - Here I'm looking for wave C towards the 1.2522 area to end the first part of the correction that began at 1.2040. Looking at the bigger wave structure I expect this red wave 4 to be a complex correction, which is why I expect the rally from 1.2040 only to be the first part of correction.
USD/JPY - My main scenario here is, that we saw wave 2 end at 77.65 and should see a more powerful rally in wave 3 soon. If we are in wave 3 the beginning has been very slow, but as long as important support at 77.65 protects the downside I will keep this count as the preferred count. A break above resistance at 78.67 is needed to ease the downside pressure and will call for a rally towards 80.09.
A break below 77.65 will invalidate the count and call for a deeper decline towards 77.15
NZD/USD - Is now very close to resistance at 0.8147, where I expect strong resistance to be found and renewed downside pressure to start building.
Looking at the RSI-Indicator we can see, that a possible divergence night be building and could be a warning, that a top is very close. However a break below support at 0.8066 is needed to indicate that the top is in place.
EUR/JPY - A rally higher towards green wave iii target near 100.67 should be seen soon.
We have seen a nice five wave rally from 94.09 to the 97.32 higher, which I counts as the first minor impulsive wave in much larger rally in the bigger picture.
Short term support at 95.67 must protect the downside or a deeper decline towards 95.33 will be seen, before green wave iii takes over.
EUR/NZD - With a new low at 1.5096 the decline from 1.6969 has been confirmed, but a clear loss of momentum and a complete five wave decline from 1.6969 indicates that it is just a matter of time before the bottom is in place. Short term a break above 1.5225 is needed to ease the downside pressure and a break above 1.5510 needed to confirm the bottom.
CRB-Index - It has been some time since I have last written about the CRB-Index, but it seems to be prudent to do so now. We currently are testing strong resistance here near 305 and we should be looking for wave iii to take over soon for a break below 293.89 for a move down towards at least 245 and more likely closer to 222.
Crude Oil - Peaked perfectly near 92.00 and we should see a break below support at 86.84 for a decline towards 82.74 and longer term the target is near 72.00
Natural Gas - Is still working its way higher towards the ideal target in the 3.57 - 3.62 area. However longer term I still expect a much bigger rally, but for now lets concentrate on the rally towards the 3.57 - 3.62 area.
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