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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Apple

 EUR/USD - I'm still looking for a move higher towards 1.2550 in wave c of Y. The price-action the last couple of days hasn't given us much clues, but as we continue to make higher lows I do favor an upside break above minor resistance at 1.2382 for a move closer to the ideal target at 1.2550.
Only a break below 1.2255 will delay the move towards 1.2550 for a deeper decline towards 1.2040 in the b-wave of a flat correction.
 EUR/JPY - The shown count is my favorite short term count and I'm still looking for a break above 98.40 for a move towards 99.42 in blue wave v and red wave 3. That said we should take note of the possible leading diagonal, which could be developing. If a leading diagonal is developing resistance at 98.68 will hold firm for a break below 97.47 for a deeper correction towards the 95.35 - 95.75 area for wave 2, before the more dynamic and powerful wave 3 takes over.
 EUR/NZD - I still think that blue wave ii should head a little to just below 1.5187 before the more dynamic and powerful wave iii takes over for a move higher towards resistance near 1.5500.
In the bigger picture a break above 1.5500 will confirm, that we saw an important bottom at 1.4968 and much higher levels should be seeing longer term.
Apple - The world most valuable company, made new all time highs yesterday. Should we be calling for a rally towards 1,000? I don't think so. In my view the top was seen at 643.88 and we are in an expanded flat correction. If this count is correct we should see a top in the 670.55 - 671.78 range for a very powerful wave C down towards support in the 500 - 504 range.
The positive message that this expanded flat correction is sending us is, that once this correction is over (is could become even more complex) we should expect a new rally to new highs, but first I think it's time to worry about the downside...  

2 comments:

  1. Hello Ews,
    Once again you are correct!

    Eur/usd, above pic, can we place a triangle as red wave b ( ended around 1.23 area)?

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  2. Hi Ray,

    Thank you!

    Hmmm - If red wave b could be a triangle? I personally would not count it as a triangle and the reason is that the rally from 1.2255 to 1.2382 (red wave i of c of Y on my chart) I count as a five wave rally and if that's correct that would kill the triangle count instantly as all waves within a triangle should be three wave moves.
    That said, if we say red wave b is a triangle all demands is fulfilled and the measured triangle target would be around 1.2535, which is just below my target at 1.2550, so I don't think it would do any damage to count red wave b as a triangle and the final outcome in both instances will be the same the end of red wave 4 and setting the stage for red wave 5 to below 1.2040.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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