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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and Gold

 EUR/USD - We have a new unconfirmed break below 1.2482 and the spike up from 1.2465 does make the decline from 1.2590 look corrective and therefore only wave iv of wave c. That means we should expect one last rally to just above the 1.2590 high. The 1.2593 ideal target would be enough, but we must accept if this rally extends beyond that target for a move towards 1.2650, but we are in the absolute last part of the correction from 1.2040 and a top could be found soon after we break into new territory after 1.2590.
 USD/JPY - I'm still very much in doubt here. As I have said the last couple of days I will keep my bullish count as long as we don't break below key-support at 78.15, but just one tick below and the bullish count is invalidated.
Looking at the bullish count the only possible bullish count is the one shown above, where red wave i of green wave iii has to be a leading diagonal and we are currently in wave ii of green wave ii, which should find it's bottom in the 78.44 - 78.49 area for the next rally above 78.84 and more important 79.32, which will confirm the bullish count above.
 GBP/USD - Here we most likely saw wave i down from 1.5912 to 1.5754 and are currently working on wave ii towards resistance near 1.5865 before wave iii down takes over for a decline towards at least 1.5609 and much lower in the big picture.
 EUR/JPY - (This chart was downloaded earlier this morning and therefore don't show the latest spike higher). Important support at 97.80 still protects the downside and I now looking for a break above 98.82 for a break above 99.18 towards the first target for red wave 5 near 99.59 and possibly even a move higher towards 100.60. At this point I would not bet on the 100.60 target, but a clear break above 99.59 would call for 100.60 to be tested.
Gold - The correction from 1,526.80 most likely ended at 1,676.79 just a few ticks above the ideal target at 1.676.44. We should now see resistance at 1.669 for the next decline below 1,656.55 towards important support at 1,625.
To turn the picture bullish it will take a break above 1,700.

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