Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; Apple and Gold

 EUR/USD - As expected we saw a break towards the upside for a rally towards my target at 1.2550. Short term I expect a shallow sideways consolidation before the last rally higher towards 1.2550. Could we see a move higher? Yes a clear break above 1.2550 would open up for a move higher towards 1.2713, but looking at red wave 2 (not shown on the chart) it was simple zig-zag that corrected 78.6% of red wave 1, therefore we should expect that red wave 4 only corrects 38.2% of red wave 3, which would be at 1.2550 before red wave 5 takes us below 1.2040.

 USD/JPY - Here we should soon see the last leg higher in red wave v towards 80.07 as the ideal target. A rally to 80.07 will mark the top of wave iii and should be followed by a shallow wave iv towards the 79.32 - 79.60 area and then the final leg higher in wave v and wave 1 of 2 towards 80.73, but lets see how things evolve.

 GBP/USD - With a test of 1.5804 yesterday my target is fulfilled, but looking at the smaller structure I do think that we should see one more rally to the upside. This last rally would most likely break slightly above my 1.5805 target, but it might not be by much. Once this rally is done we should see wave 3 take over for a decline below 1.5268 and longer term even below 1.3500.

 NZD/USD - I have changed my count slightly, but that does not change my longer term view, that we soon should see a more massive downside pressure towards 0.7843 in wave iii down. A break below support at 0.8060 will confirm the next leg lower.

 EUR/JPY - With the break above 98.68 there was no longer any doubt that a rally towards 99.42 was in the cards. Once we have seen the test of 99.42 we should see red wave 4 take over in a shallow correction towards the 98.53 and maybe even down to 97.98 before red wave 5 takes us up to 100.26.

 EUR/NZD - Should soon test resistance near 1.5500, but after a minor consolidation I'm looking for a continuation higher towards 1.5565 to end blue wave v and red wave iii. Would I be concerned if the correction from 1.5500 break below 1.5335 (the top of blue wave i). Not really, but it will change the short term count from a series of waves one's and two's to a leading diagonal and call for a deeper correction towards the 1.5076 - 1.5157 before the next rally takes over.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - Found resistance at 13,330.76 just below the start of wave 1 at 13,338.66. I would like to see a break below minor support at 13,072 before declaring wave 2 over at 13,330.76, but I strongly believe we have seen the top already. If we have a top in place we also have a non-confirmation between the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 as the S&P 500 made a new high above its April 2 - 2012 high at 1,422.38 (yesterdays high was at 1.426.68). However I think that the non-confirmation add value to my expectation of a top being in place, but I will of cause like to see some solid proof.

 Apple - Made it to 674.88 just 3 points above the top of my target-area. I strongly believe we have a top in place, the overthrow and quick return into the expanding diagonal adds confidence in this view, but we need a break below 627.75 to confirm the top. Even if we need one more new high above 674.88 it should not be able to make much progress, but I would not bet on the need for one more new high. Once the top is confirmed we should see a decline down close to 490.00

Gold - Has not done much the last couple of month. I still regard the rally from 1,548 as an ending diagonal and we should soon see renewed downside pressure. However as we have seen with DJI and The S&P 500 we also have a non-confirmation here between gold and silver. Silver has clearly broken above its early July highs, which gold has not, but if it does we could see a move higher towards 1,647, however it will take a break above 1,663.38 to invalidate the ending diagonal count and call for a continuation towards the 1,667 - 1,672 area. Any break below 1,609.50 will confirm the top and a new push towards strong support near 1,521.