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Monday, August 6, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; USD/JPY; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD; DJI; SSEC and Facebook

I still have problems with my normal charting system, sorry.


EUR/USD - I'm still looking for a rally closer to the target near1.2500. Looking at the rally from 1.2134 we most likely just misses one final rally higher towards the 1.2500 target. Short term look for a break above 1.2406 to confirm that last part of the rally is under way. The risk is a break below 1.2280, that would indicate, that we already has seen red wave c end at 1.2443 and that the next part of the complex correction that began at 1.2040 is in the making. 

EUR/JPY - Here we should see support at 96.70 for the next rally above 97.28, which will confirm the next part of the rally from 94.92 is under way towards at least 100.30 and possibly even the 101.50 area.
Short term the risk is a break below 96.70 towards 96.34 and maybe even 96.01 as long as minor resistance at 97.28 protects the upside, but even if we get to 96.34 or even 96.01 we should see a new rally afterwards.

USD/JPY - Here I'm still looking for red wave iii to start any time now. A break above 78.48 and more importantly 78.64 will confirm that red wave iii has begun.
At no point can a break below 78.21 and more importantly 78.07 be accepted as that will leave us with a clear three wave rally from 77.90 and call for a new test here and likely the invalidation-point at 77.65.

USD/CAD - We could still see a deeper correction towards 0.9940 as long as minor resistance at 1.0034 protects the upside. However once minor resistance at 1.0034 is broken the next rally towards strong resistance at 1.0227 and break above here will confirm that the triple correction from 1.0446 is over and the next big rally towards 1.1039 is under way.

AUD/USD - The corrective rally from 0.9628 is still ongoing, but the upside is limited to the 1.0627 - 1.0700 area, from where the next decline towards at least the 0.97 - 0.98 area should be seen.

NZD/USD - The picture is pretty much the same as for AUD/USD. We are facing strong resistance here at 0.8200, however we still need a break below support at 0.8060 to confirm that the next X-wave is in place and a new decline towards at least 0.75 is under way.
Dow Jones Industrial Index: Here I'm still looking for wave 2 to end and wave 3 down towards at least 11.264. Short term we need a break below 13,043 to indicate, that wave may have finished, but it will take a break below 12,550 to confirm that wave 2 is in place and wave 3 down is under way.
Shanghai Composite: Is still working on wave C, which should take us much lower longer term, however a break below important support near 2,070 is needed to really open up the downside for a decline towards 1,665 and lower.
The downside target at 24.50 has more than been fulfilled. However it looks as we have reached the low of wave C at 19.82, which should open up for a rally back towards the wave B high near 33.43.
A rally towards 33.43 would be a nice 58% rally and the price for facebook much more balanced than it was at 45.00 - If it's fair priced here? I have no idea , but the chart tells me, that we could be in for a nice rally and that's all I need.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Isha,

    Nice blog you have.

    I'll be happy to include your blog in my blog roll.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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