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Friday, August 17, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; VIX and DJI; TLT and Gold

 EUR/USD - Should soon break above minor resistance at 1.2386 for the next part of the rally towards 1.2443 and the ideal target at 1.2550 to end red wave 4.
 USD/JPY - Is well under way to it red wave iii target near 80.09, but we should soon see a test of  resistance near 80.62 and a break above here will open for a continuation towards strong resistance at 84.17
 GBP/USD - The correction since the end of wave 1 at 1.5340 has been messy and rather complex, but we are closing in on the final rise towards 1.5805 to end wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 down towards at least 1.4172 and likely even lower. In the larger picture we should ultimately see a move below the end of wave [A] at 1.3499.
 NZD/USD - Went slightly higher than the ideal 0.8111 - 0.8117 target area, but with the test of 0.8124 we have most likely seen the end to red wave ii and should soon see a break below 0.8054 to confirm a new test of 0.8036 low towards the red wave iii target near 0.7911. Only a break above 0.8124 will delay the downside of a move towards 0.8160 before the downside takes over again.
 EUR/JPY - Is well under way towards the blue wave iii target near 99.41. However longer term I'm looking for a move towards strong resistance at 101.62 and higher. That said we should be aware of the possibility, that a leading diagonal from 94.09 could be building. If this is the case a break above 98.68 can't be allowed before a substantial correction towards 95.40 - 95.80 has been seen first. A break above 98.68 will eliminate the leading diagonal possibility.
EUR/NZD - Broke below support at 1.5197, but only for a slightly lower decline to 1.5187 and I'm now looking for a break above 1.5335 to confirm a continuation higher towards 1.5495 and even higher longer term.



VIX Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index - The VIX index is siting on long term strong support. It does not mean we can't break below it, but any break should be short lived. The market is simply becoming to complacent and we should be looking for a important top soon. Whether it will be at 13,338.66 or just above 13,381.70 really doesn't matter, what matters is that the upside is becoming extremely limited. A break below 13,146 will be the trigger for a much bigger decline.

 Facebook - Has made it to new lows. I'm still looking for a decline towards 17.20 before a big rally up to 33.43 can be expected. That said we are in the final part of the C-Wave decline from 33.43 and a bottom could be set before my ideal 17.20 target.
See my post from August 10, where the longer term picture of Facebooks price-action can be seen. Link here:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/08/facebook-monthely-close-basis-facebook.html
 TLT (Barclay's 20Y+ Bond fund) - The decline from 132.21 continues and the target for red wave iii is near 115.60, however we should see a decline to strong support near 109.69, which will likely represent a good buying opportunity.
Gold - Gold has been very borrowing. The choppy overlapping price-action since the 1,526.80 low clearly tells us, that we are in a complex correction, which will eventually resolve itself in a new downside pressure. However before we get to that point we should expect a little more upside towards 1,641 and maybe even closer to 1,666 before the downside pressure really takes over again.

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