Friday, December 21, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The ongoing correction is the "biggest" correction we have seen since the 105.97 low, that tells us that we have likely seen the top of wave iii with the test of 112.49 and should now look for a correction towards the 38.2% retracement level of wave iii. This retracement target comes in at 110.00. However, looking at the internal structure of the correction. we might just need a slightly deeper correction towards 110.47 before this correction is over and the next rally higher towards 113.15. Short term we expect a move to 111.08 before the last downswing towards 110.47 and maybe even 110.00 before this correction terminates and the next rally higher can begin. Only a direct break above 111.51 will tell us, that the correction is already over and a new upswing is developing.

EUR/NZD

We have seen a new high, but this is not enough to say that the correction from 1.5915 is over, is to early to tell. The correction from 1.5915 could be an expanding flat correction, which could take us down to 1.5775 before the next rally higher. If it turns out to be an expanded flat correction, we can be almost certain, that the next wave higher will be an extended wave. That said, if minor support at 1.5856 protects the downside for a new rally above 1.5917, then we should turn our focus towards the upside again for the next rally higher towards 1.6004 as the next target.

4 comments:

  1. How would rate that correction 110.00 level is 70.7% of the current wave from the previous week gap which possible should the Iron claud support for a bounce towards and I agree becuase usd/yen weakness will continue and better if it fill in gap.

    Do you think that second wave of higher degree was a expanded flat and this wave is about to become a extended one as well

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Aman,

    Are you looking at EUR/JPY or USD/JPY?

    I'm not quite sure at this point.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear I am pointing at eur/yen because of the usd/yen gap it can pushed eur/yen lower But there as less chances the euro will drag it lower that is why I asked that which is the pattern you are looking at zigzag or might be a triangle building up on h4 in wave I expect it to finish around 110.47 a pending buy stop there still in Euro trade. I think its last day of the year and expect some volitality before chrismas holidays begin and two days of the next week wont be volitile..

    Thanks for you update of eur/nzd its near 1.6011 would be buy above there as correction end and no possiblity of expanded flat

    Kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi again Aman

    It's still an open question if it's just a zig-zag or it will develop into a triangle. When we deal with correction within wave iii I tend to go for the simplest kind, which in this case would be the zig-zag, but only time will show.

    no possibility for and expanded flat correction in EUR/NZD any more. We are in wave iii of 3, which should push right through resistance at 1.6059 for a continuation higher towards 1.6300.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete