Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

As expected the gap between 109.92 and 111.03 was filled at once. With a low at 109.93 we could be headed for the next serious test of strong resistance in the 111.30 - 111.43 area, but once this area is overcome we will see the next rally higher towards at least 113.68. That said, short term we need to clear a minor resistance at 110.79, before a more firm test of strong resistance in the 111.30 - 111.45 area will be seen. As long as 110.79 protects the upside, we must accept the possibility of a more complex correction down to 109.56. As always it should be worth to remember, that we are in wave iii of 3 and corrections tend to small and even sub-normal.

EUR/NZD

Resistance at 1.5600 has put up quite a fight, but it should only be a matter of time before it is cleared and the next powerful rally higher towards 1.5650 and 1.5709 is seen, with the next major target being 1.5927. However, as long as resistance at 1.5600 has not been cleared we could see more consolidation just below, but I would be surprised to see any price-action below 1.5534 now. So stay tuned for a break above 1.5600, which indicates that the test of 1.5445 marked an important bottom. However it will still take a break below 1.5390 to invalidate my bullish count. 

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