Sunday, December 16, 2012

Elliott wave analysis for DJI - Long term view - Update

Dow Jones Industrial Index

First take a look at my long term count here:

I haven't changed my long term view and is still looking for a new all time high sometime during 2013 (wave D) followed by a massive decline into 2016 (wave E).

Looking at the weekly chart I would expect the first half of 2013 to be a hard period for the bulls, with a decline towards 9.611. While the second half should prove to be a nice ride to a new all time high probably near the 16.450 level. Before everybody is taken by surprise with the a new massive decline. The is two option for wave E. It could make a new low below the March 2009 low, but it could as well stay above the March 2009 low and end close to the wave X low near 9.600, from where the next big rally higher cloud set in.

Cloud I be wrong? Yes of cause! We could stages a direct rally towards a new all time high, but I'm equally sure it will not last for too long and within the 2-3 years we have experienced a new massive decline once again. No rally of cycle degree has ever happend when the VIX was in the complacency area where it has been for quite some time now.   

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