Monday, December 17, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR-JPY

Trading in the Far East began with a gap. Gaps are rare in the Currency Market and have a tendency to be closed almost at once, that could mean a small set-back towards 109.92 before the next attempt to break above strong resistance in the 111.30 - 111.43 area. Once resistance at 111.43 is cleared the next major target is 113.68. However, even 113.68 should not be too big of an obstacle as we expect the ongoing wave iii of 3 to extend and take us even higher to 117.44. That said as long as major resistance at 111.43 holds firm we should expect a correction towards 109.92 before the next rally can be expected. Only a break below 109.03 will call for a more serious correction taking place.

EUR/NZD

As we have broken above the first resistance at 1.5528, we have also gotten the first clue, that an important bottom is in place. However, we would like to see a break above resistance at 1.5600 soon to gain even more confidence, that an important bottom is in place for the next powerful rally towards 1.5927. Because of the speed of the decline in wave ii we will not have to many good resistance points on the way up again, but we will find resistance at 1.5675 and again at 1.5780. Support is now found at 1.5530, which ideally will hold any set-backs, but it will still take a break below 1.5390 to invalidate our bullish count.


4 comments:

  1. Hi EWS,
    Do you think we are still in wave 4 on FB? Or do you think we had a truncated 5?

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  2. Hi Todd,

    I think it's a wave iv of 3. The minor rally from 26.83 to 28.74 was clearly in three waves and therefore can't be wave five.

    That means we are looking at some kind of flat correction, where wave c is breaking slightly below the end of wave a. If we haven't seen the low of wave 4 yet all we need is a slight new low below 26.32 before the next rally higher towards 29.76 as the first possible target and more likely 31.93 as wave v of 3.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Todd,

    Your are welcome as always

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete