Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD
The rally from the 105.97 is clearly impulsive in its character, which is the first indication, that wave iii of 3 is developing. At the same time we are breaking through resistances as was they made of hot butter, which is the next good indication, that this rally is impulsive. That said, we are getting close to the 107.96 top and should expect some kind of correction before the this resistance is broken for the a move higher towards 110.84 as the next major target. Short term we expect resistance in the 107.52 - 107.67 area will protect the upside for a correction down to 106.92 and maybe even 106.56 before the next powerful rally sets in.
We still need a rally above 1.5543 and more importantly 1.5602 before I feel confident that an important bottom is in place. That said, the small rally from the 1.5457 low does display impulsive characters, which is a good sign, but more evidence is needed to feel sure, that 1.5457 was an important low. A break above 1.5602 will do the trick and indicate that wave iii of 3 has begun for a new powerful rally higher. The first major target for this wave iii is at 1.5927. However, as long as minor resistance at 1.5602 stays intact the risk is still towards the downside, but at no point can a break below 1.5390 be allowed, as the will force me to shift towards a more bearish count.