Thursday, December 27, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/CHF; USD/JPY and GBP/USD


The overall picture is still the same. I'm tracking a big running Triangle, which has been developing since late 2008. Within the Triangle we are currently in wave E, which I expect will make it to at least 1.3491 and likely even to the 1.3795 - 1.3835 where wave c of E will be equal in length to wave a of E.
The break out of the bearish channel has confirmed that wave E is developing.


The count I have shown is my preferred count at this point, but we need a break above 0.9513 to confirm, that wave ii of 3 is over and the powerful wave iii of 3 developing. The risk is of cause a break below 0.8930 which will indicate a deeper correction towards 0.8622 before the next rally higher.
A break above 0.9513 will call for a new rally towards 0.9972 on the way to 1.0715.


Closed well above important resistance at 85.52 and our focus should now towards the upside for a continuation higher towards 92.38 and likely even higher towards 101.82 as the next major target.
I would not bet on the downside at this point in time, but that doesn't mean a set-back towards the low 83 levels couldn't be seen, but as I said I would not bet on that outcome.


We are still locked within the B-wave Triangle, but time is running out and we will likely see a break out of the Triangle very soon. I'm still looking for a break towards the upside and a break above 1.6305 will be the first good indication, that a upside break will be seen for a powerful rally higher towards the 1.97 - 1.98 area.
The alter my bullish view a break below 1.5234 is need, which would call for an equally powerful decline to well below 1.3514.

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