Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD and Gold

 EUR/USD

Did blue wave 4 end with the test of 1.2877? I think there is a very good chance that this is the case. It's not uncommon that wave 4 will correct towards wave iv of one lessor degree, which in this case meant a correction to 1.2880. The minor rally since the 1.2877 low does look impulsive and I would be looking for a break above 1.3075 as the next clue, that we are moving higher towards 1.3290 and possibly even towards 1.3491.
Gold

I think there is a very good chance, that we are ready to take on important resistance in the 1,795 - 1,803 area again. The first clues will be a break above 1,734 and more importantly a break above 1,754, which will confirm a test of important resistance at the 1,795 - 1,803 area. That said we need a break above here to really release the impulsive power for the next move higher towards 2,158.84 and possibly even 2,550.59 and 3,184.70.

4 comments:

  1. Hi! In long term you give up the idea that euro will cam down till 1.18 ?

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  2. Hi Zink,

    That is still my expectation. However we need to finish the possible wave E of the big running triangle that has been building since 2009.

    To finish wave E I expect a move higher towards at least 1.3290 and maybe even higher to 1.3498 in wave c of E. That said wave E have corrected 38.2% of wave D, so the is a risk, that wave E is already in place, but that is my alternated count at this point in time.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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  3. That is the most possible outcome of euro. And possibly I think still a decline towards 1.2850 possible if you count a five wave move from 1.3126 and currently we are in expanded flat which might finsh around 1.2978 and then possible decline and then I would looking to buy euro with a break above 1.2980 otherwise staying aside is recommended. But if you take this impulse rally into count then wave 4 should be compulsive or zigzag and then wave finished around 1.2850 in both cases So NO thinking of buying till we get a move above 1.2980 and possible 1.3073 What do you think ?

    Regards

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  4. Euro must make new highs because if reject this area between 1,30 and a,1.2965 build rigth shoulder of a H&S chart pattern and then go lower !!

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