Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD and Gold


Did blue wave 4 end with the test of 1.2877? I think there is a very good chance that this is the case. It's not uncommon that wave 4 will correct towards wave iv of one lessor degree, which in this case meant a correction to 1.2880. The minor rally since the 1.2877 low does look impulsive and I would be looking for a break above 1.3075 as the next clue, that we are moving higher towards 1.3290 and possibly even towards 1.3491.

I think there is a very good chance, that we are ready to take on important resistance in the 1,795 - 1,803 area again. The first clues will be a break above 1,734 and more importantly a break above 1,754, which will confirm a test of important resistance at the 1,795 - 1,803 area. That said we need a break above here to really release the impulsive power for the next move higher towards 2,158.84 and possibly even 2,550.59 and 3,184.70.


  1. Hi! In long term you give up the idea that euro will cam down till 1.18 ?

  2. Hi Zink,

    That is still my expectation. However we need to finish the possible wave E of the big running triangle that has been building since 2009.

    To finish wave E I expect a move higher towards at least 1.3290 and maybe even higher to 1.3498 in wave c of E. That said wave E have corrected 38.2% of wave D, so the is a risk, that wave E is already in place, but that is my alternated count at this point in time.

    Kind regards

  3. That is the most possible outcome of euro. And possibly I think still a decline towards 1.2850 possible if you count a five wave move from 1.3126 and currently we are in expanded flat which might finsh around 1.2978 and then possible decline and then I would looking to buy euro with a break above 1.2980 otherwise staying aside is recommended. But if you take this impulse rally into count then wave 4 should be compulsive or zigzag and then wave finished around 1.2850 in both cases So NO thinking of buying till we get a move above 1.2980 and possible 1.3073 What do you think ?


  4. Euro must make new highs because if reject this area between 1,30 and a,1.2965 build rigth shoulder of a H&S chart pattern and then go lower !!