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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

TLT at support. Are we ready to make new highs?

TLT (Barclay's 20+ Treasury bond fund - Has since the bottom at 87.30 in April 2010 been in a impulsive five wave rally. We are now in the final parts of this rally, but the rally is not quite done yet. Looking at the rally from 87.30 we find some interesting relationships between the waves:

Wave 3 became 1.618 times longer than wave 1 at 123.84 (the high was set at 123.87 just 3 small pips above)

Wave 2 wave a deep (correcting 95% of wave 1), but simple zig-zag correction, while wave 4 was a shallow (correcting 38.2% of wave 3) flat correction, alternating as expected due to the EWP.

What can we expect of wave 5? The normal targets for wave 5 will be either the 38.2% or the 61.8% measured length of the beginning of wave 1 to the end of wave 3, which will give us a target at 123.87 or 132.42. As we have broken clearly above 123.87, we should be looking for wave 5 at 132.42.
Could wave 5 extend beyond 132.42? Yes, but it will be a difficult ride higher. However if resistance at 132.42 is broken the extension target for wave 5 will be at 146.28, where wave 5 will be equal to the length of the beginning of wave 1 to the end of wave 3.

Looking at wave 5 internal waves we can count four waves. looking at there internal relations wave ii corrected just shy of 81.6% of wave i. Wave iii became an extended wave, by becoming almost 4.236 times longer than wave i and the ongoing wave iv will ideally correct 38.2% of wave iii down to 122.83, but strong support will be found in the 123.18 - 124.44 area, so you should not be surprised if wave iv only is able to correct to the 124.44 level from where we should shift focus towards the 132.42 target. 

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