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Friday, June 8, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; DJI; SSEC; Gold and Natural Gas

 EUR/USD - Even though I was looking after some kind of flat correction towards 1.2624 I must accept that it looks more like a simple zig-zag correction from 1.2286. The correction from 1.2286 still can turn into a flat correction, but I do think it is wiser to tread the correction from 1.2286 as finished at 1.2625 and that the next impulsive wave down is under way. This impulsive wave should blue wave v down, which will end the blue sequence, but at the same time it will only mark the end to red wave 3 down. The first target for blue wave v is in the 1.2206 - 1.2231 area.
 USD/JPY - I have change the short term count slightly from yesterday so wave i ends at 79.78 and not 79.48. However I will still be looking for a correction down to ideally the 78.43 - 78.73 area as minor wave ii, but remember that the correction could be deeper than that.
 GBP/USD - Here too I expect red wave iv to have ended at 1.5600 and we should now see wave v down towards 1.5182 as the ideal target. That said remember that we are in wave [C] down after a thrust out of the [B] wave triangle and corrections tend to be shallow both the length and time.
 EUR/JPY - Wave 4 has been a sharp Zig-zag correction alternating from the expanded flat correction as wave 2. I'm now looking for the last impulsive wave down in the decline from 111.43 towards 94.58 as the ideal target.
 Dow Jones Industrial Index (Preferred count) - As resistance at 12.611 protects the upside, this count will stay my preferred count. I will now be looking for a powerful decline taking out support at 12,035 for a continuation down towards 10,989 in wave 3 of C. Remember what I'm looking for is a five wave decline in wave C of an expanded flat correction, which began all way back in early May 2011.
 Dow Jones Industrial Index (Alternate count) - If we break back above 12,611, this count becomes the preferred count. After the top at 12,555 yesterday I will be looking for a decline towards 12,250 - 12,300 here followed by a new rally, that will take out resistance at 12,611 for a move closer to the 12,840 area.
 Shanghai Composite - Has begun the next part of the impulsive decline that began at 2,453. This decline should at least take us down to 2,191, but I expect this decline to be more violent and take us further down towards the 2,065 area.

 Gold - Stopped more or less right on the spot and the following decline has been quite violent and will concern the bulls. However capitulation of the bulls will not happen before we break below 1,521. A break below 1,521 will call for a much deeper decline towards the 864 - 1,005 area, with 864 being the ideal target.
For the bulls to regain control, they need support in the 1,544 - 1,551 area to protect the downside for a new challenge of resistance in the 1,640 - 1,677 area. Any break below 1,531 will destroy the possible bullish count of 1,527.
Natural Gas - Resistance at 2.50 protected the upside for one last decline into the expected target-area. That raises the odd for a rebound, but we need to take out 2.50 to confirm that the correction is over and the next impulsive rally towards 4.33 have begun.

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