EUR/USD - I'm looking for a break below 1.2434 to confirm that blue wave 4 ended at 1.2671 and blue 5 down to 1.1991 is under way.
USD/JPY - Wave ii seems to have ended with a shallow correction from 79.78 down to 79.13 (just a bit more than a 23.6% retracement of the rally from 77.65 to 79.78). As long as resistance at 79.78 isn't broken we could see one last flat correction, which could take us down to 78.97, but a break above 79.78 will argue, that the correction from 79.78 is over and wave iii towards at least 81.27 have begun.
GBP/USD - Here I'm looking for a break below support at 1.5401 to confirm that the next decline towards 1.5182 is under way. The first part of the down-thrust from the large B-wave triangle is expected to end near 1.5182.
EUR/JPY - We should soon get confirmation, that wave 5 down to 94.58 is under way. A break below support at 98.53 will confirm that wave 5 down has begun.
Short term we could see a minor rise to the 100.36 - 100.57 area before down.
EUR/NZD - I still look for an expanded flat correction from 1.6244. Wave b of this expanded flat should not go much lower than 1.6137, which is where wave b will be 1.618 time wave a. When wave b is done we should see wave c take us up towards the 1.6533 - 1.6544 area to end wave 2.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - The break above 12,611 forced me to adopted an the alternate count. However there once again seems to be two valid counts for the ongoing price-action. They are shown above. The first is that we saw wave c of 2 end yesterday at 12,650 and would be ready to continue the decline from 13,308 towards 10.979 as the next target.
The second alternative is that we have only seen wave a of wave 2 and wave b is ongoing. Wave b should ideally end in the 12,267 - 12,340 area, from where we should see the next rally towards 12,840 before the next decline sets in.
No matte which scenario is the correct one, the final outcome will be the same a new powerful decline. So don't get complacent.
Gold - My preferred count shows that we have begun wave iii down from 1,607.95. The first minor wave became an expanded leading diagonal. A break below 1,582.49 will confirm that wave iii down have indeed begun for a test of important support at 1,521 and a break below here will be really bad news for the bulls.
Natural Gas - Should be very close to the end of wave 2. However we will need a break above 2.32 to confirm that wave 2 has indeed ended and wave 3 towards at least 3.60 is under way.
Until we sees the break above 2.32 we could see wave 2 testing a little lower towards 2.15 and maybe even 2.10 before up.
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