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Monday, June 4, 2012

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; Dow Jones Industrial; Shanghai Composite; Gold and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - Blue wave 3 ended right at the ideal target-area and we should now be looking for blue wave 4 towards 1.2522 before the final fifth wave down in the blue series towards 1.2229, but that will only mark the end of red wave 3. We have much more downside to cover.
 USD/JPY - Continue to surprise towards the downside, however we should be in the very last part of the triple zig-zag correction that began at 84.17.
As can be seen above we are building a new wave iv triangle, which soon should be finish a call for one last decline towards the 77.50 - 77.58 target-area, with 77.58 being the ideal target.
When this final wave down is done we should see a new impulsive rally above 84.17.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - In my last short term view on the Dow (see the post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/05/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_22.html) I wrote that wave 2 possibly could reach the 12,837 - 13,049 area, but as can be seen wave 2 only reached 12,611 in a expanded flat correction. That tells me, that we are in a very weak position and that wave 3 down from 12,611 should be an extended wave. The first extension target will be at 10,989, where wave 3 will be 1.618 time wave 1.
Short term I now expect resistance in the 12,252 - 12,316 area, which should protect the upside for the next leg lower. At no point can a break above 12,490 be allowed as that would force a re-count of the short term. 
 Shanghai Composite - Here too red wave ii became an expanded flat correction calling for an extension in red wave iii down to at least 2,195, but the decline should be much deeper and it should only be a question of time before important support near 2,000 will be tested.
Important short term resistance is now located at 2,388.
 Gold - The possible series of one's and two's I showed on Friday was quickly invalidated, but that only alters the short term count, making red wave ii taking up more time. The risk is still a break below important support at 1,521, which would open up the downside for a powerful decline towards the 864,00 - 1,005 area.
Crude Oil - Had no problem break below its first extension target near 90.00, which has opened up for a continuation down towards the next extension target near 77.28. Longer term I'm looking for a decline to at least the 51.88 - 55.53 area if a triangle is building, but the possibility for a decline towards the 30 - 31 area is very likely.

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