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Friday, June 1, 2012

Long term Elliott wave count on Crude Oil


Crude Oil - The rally from the 1998 low at 10.35 displays some interesting wave relationships
Wave 3 ended at 78.40, which was almost exactly 2.618 times wave 1 at 79.73.
Wave 5 also extended as wave 3 did in becoming slightly bigger than 1.382 times
wave 1 through wave 3 at 143.87. Wave 5 also became almost 1.618 times wave 3.

Looking at wave 2 is was an expanding flat correction correcting 76.4% of wave 1,
while wave 4 alternated and became a simple zig-zag correction, correcting slightly
more that 38.2% of wave 3.

The correction of the 147.25 high was a simple zig-zag correction, where wave C
became slightly bigger than 1.618 times wave a. However the correction ended
in only 29 short weeks, which is the reason I expect it just to be the first part of a
bigger/longer correction. The second part of the correction from the 32.70 low to
114.83 is also a three wave correction where wave c is equal to wave a.
I am now looking for a five wave decline in wave C down to something like the
30 - 31 area. However the is a possibility that we only see a decline to the 51.88 to 55.53
area in a three wave decline indicating that a triangle is developing.

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