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Tuesday, June 12, 2012

NZD/USD ready for a decline to 0.7390

NZD/USD - It has been some time since I last visited this cross (see my post from May 17 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/05/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_17.html)

In my last post i said that we had encounter support in the 0.7619 - 0.7652 area, however minor wave iii actually went down to 0.7515 before finding support. Looking at the internal relationships between wave i and wave iii. we can see that wave iii became a little longer than 3.0 times longer than wave i (it's not shown on the chart. However the calculation is as follows: Wave i went down from 0.8318 to 0.8084 =  - 2.34 multiplied with 3 wave iii should travel a distance of -7.02 from the top of wave ii, which was 0.8234 - 0.0702 = 0.7532).
Wave iii was followed by a very shallow retracement of less that 23.6% of wave iii to 0.7675 from where the final minor wave v went down to 0.7453. The decline to 0.7453 was just 26 pips below the point where wave 3 would have been 2 * wave 1 (0.7479). Wave 3 was followed by a correction in wave 4, that have taken us up to 0.7780, which is just 3 small pips below the 38.2% retracement of wave 3 and I now believe will are in the final decline down to 0.7390 in wave 5. At 0.7390 wave 5 will have traveled 38.2% of the distance from the top of wave 1 at 0.8470 to the bottom of wave 3 at 74.53. This will most likely mark the end of wave A down from 0.8470 to 0.7390 and setting the stage for wave B, but time will tell

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