Translate

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/NZD and 10Y Spanish yields

EUR/USD - I do believe it will be appropriate to change my short term count slightly. The decline from 1.2672 down to 1.2441 only marked minor blue wave i and we should now see minor blue wave ii up towards the 1.2555 - 1.2583 area before minor blue wave iii down to 1.2207 sets in.
 USD/JPY - I'm not especially convinced that the correction from 79.78 is over yet, but if it is we need a break above 79.78 soon to confirm the next move higher towards 81.25. However failure to hold support at 79.48 will tell us, that the correction is still ongoing and that we should see one final decline to ideally just below 79.09 before wave ii is done.
 EUR/NZD - The price-action has not been consistent with wave v already being over at 1.6244. A more likely scenario is, that wave v it self is an extended wave, which will most likely be equal to the distance traveled from the beginning of wave i to the end of wave iii, which will give us an ideal target near 1.5924. The decline will be choppy as we shall see a series of waves three's and four's down to 1.5924. From 1.5924 I will be looking for a correction in wave 2 towards 1.6544 - 1.6569.

The spread between 10Y Spanish bonds ag. 10Y German Bunds - The most important development o/n might be, that the 10Y Spanish bond yield now is testing resistance at 6.73. If this resistance is broken the next target will be near 8.12. A yield above 6% makes the Spanish debt unsustainable and the latest USD 100 bn. bailout of the Spanish banks just makes it even harder on the Spanish Government and Spain can look forward to even more austerities measures.

No comments:

Post a Comment