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Friday, March 30, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; VIX-Index; DJI and Crude oil

EUR/USD - The last couple of days price-action is clearly corrective, therefore we should see at least a new move higher towards 133.90, producing a possible false break above 133.85, but we will still need a break below support at 132.85 to confirm this outcome.
As the decline from 133.85 to 132.85 has been corrective we could see a move through 133.90, which would call for a continuation higher towards 134.85 and possibly even into the 137-138 area.
USD/JPY - Withe the break below 81.86 we can conclude that wave 3 ended at 84.17 and that we are now in wave 4, which ideally should take us down to the 80.85 - 81.05 area, with a slight possibility of a decline to 80.55 before we should be ready for the next leg higher (wave 5) towards the 85.00 - 85.35 target-area.
VIX Index - Still nothing new here. We are fighting with the mid-line and hasn't been able to close above it yet, which keeps us orientated towards the downside. However we have seen a clear loss of downside momentum these last couple of days, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a more definitive challenge of resistance at 17.65 soon and possibly a move higher towards strong resistance in the 19.50 - 20.00 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Tested the pink dotted line yesterday. This was the fifth test of this support-line an emphasis its important. If we break below this line we should soon see a test of strong support at 12,735. However that could easily be the beginning of a sideways consolidation.
Crude Oil - Is close to invalidating the inverse S/H/S bottom. A clear break below 101.15 will truly weaken the formation and a break below 95.44 will for sure invalidate it all together and call for powerful decline towards support near 88.00.
Any break back above 108.25 will revitalise the upside pressure and call for a move higher towards 114.80 as next important resistance.

2 comments:

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    1. Hi Wave Surfer,
      I don't see 5 waves on that large wave 3 from 76.01 to 84.17 in USD/JPY. Do you?

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