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Monday, March 26, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

EUR/USD - The expended flat correction we have seen from 130.77 could be over with the slight false break above 132.91 (the new high was 132.93), which also means that my target-area between 132.92 - 133.22 was tested. However we need a break below 132.19 and more importantly 131.33 to confirm, that we have seen the top. As long as 132.19 isn't broken to the downside we could see one last rally deeper into my correction target-area between 132.92 - 133.22 for wave c of 2.
GBP/USD - Is testing strong overhead resistance near 159.25. I still look for this resistance to hold for a break below 157.70 and more importantly 156.00 which will confirm the next leg low to below 152.33. Only an unexpected break above 159.25 will delay the downside for a push towards 163.00 before down.
Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels.
USD/JPY - Held above important support at 81.86 (Overlap area for blue wave i and wave iv), this keeps my preferred count well and alive. Whats need now is a break above 82.94 to confirm the next rally higher in blue wave v and red wave iii.
Only a direct break below 81.86 confirms a deeper correction towards the low 80 area before the next push higher.
EUR/JPY - Is in wave b of 2. I still see the possibility for a move towards 110 and maybe even to my target-area between 110.30 - 110.50 before the last leg lower in wave c of 2 towards 105.92.

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