EUR/USD - We saw one last swing to the downside yesterday, which finished wave 1 down from 134.86 and we are working on wave 2, which should at least reach 132.04, but I do think a move to the 132.40 - 132.45 area, would be nicer. In this area we have a cluster of resistance as it marks the top of wave iv. It will be a 38.2% retracement of the decline from 134.86 to 130.95 and finally wave c of 2 would be 1.618 times longer than wave a.
All that said if we break clearly above 132.45 the next resistance will likely be around 133.36, which marks the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 down.
USD/JPY - Has finished wave iii of 1 at 81.86 and we are currently working on wave iv, which ideally should make it to the 79.80 - 80.00 area before the last leg higher towards the S/H/S target at 82.67 ending wave 1.Longer term I'm looking for much higher levels in USD/JPY.
GBP/USD - The recent rally became larger than I expected, which has made the alternate count marked in red more likely. However the final outcome will be the same a hard thrust down below the ending point of wave [A] at 134.98.If the alternate count is the correct count we must be a little more paciente, but it should be a question of time. A break below 156.40 could be the first warning that we are ready to the next down-leg, but a break below 152.30 is need to confirm the downside thrust.
Dow Jones Industrial - Still need at least two more legs to the downside before wave 1 is over. I'm still looking for resistance near 12.900 to protect the upside for a clear break below 12.753 to confirm the next declines.
Dow Jones Industrial - Still need at least two more legs to the downside before wave 1 is over. I'm still looking for resistance near 12.900 to protect the upside for a clear break below 12.753 to confirm the next declines. I preferred count is, that the test of 13,055 marked the top of wave [B], but we need a break below 12,753 and of cause more importantly 12,284 to confirm this count. As long as support at 12,753 stays intact there is a possibility of one more rally closer to 13,100.
NYSE Composite - I normally don't write about this index, but as is the case between DJI and DJT we also have a non-confirmation here. NYSE hasn't made a new high above the May 2011 high and we are currently testing the important support-line since the October 2011 low at 6,414. Longer term I'm looking at the big S/H/S top, which might be building and a break below the neckline near 6,414 will leave the downside wide open.
CRB Index - Seems to have finished a double top and we should now see renewed downside pressure in the coming weeks months. A break below the important support near 292 will leave the commodity complex extremely vulnerable. Longer term I'm still looking for a new low below the ending point of wave [A] at 200.00
US Basic Materials Index - Here too we are breaking down. In the bigger picture we can see a big S/H/S top building and ultimately I expect the neckline at 211 will be broken for the next big decline to below the lows of 2009 at 112.16.
NYSE Composite - I normally don't write about this index, but as is the case between DJI and DJT we also have a non-confirmation here. NYSE hasn't made a new high above the May 2011 high and we are currently testing the important support-line since the October 2011 low at 6,414. Longer term I'm looking at the big S/H/S top, which might be building and a break below the neckline near 6,414 will leave the downside wide open.
CRB Index - Seems to have finished a double top and we should now see renewed downside pressure in the coming weeks months. A break below the important support near 292 will leave the commodity complex extremely vulnerable. Longer term I'm still looking for a new low below the ending point of wave [A] at 200.00
US Basic Materials Index - Here too we are breaking down. In the bigger picture we can see a big S/H/S top building and ultimately I expect the neckline at 211 will be broken for the next big decline to below the lows of 2009 at 112.16.I haven't shown the Elliott wave count on this chart, but wave 1 of [C] was the decline from 339.34 to 211.33 and the rally we have just seen from 211.33 to 297.11 marks wave 2 and we probably have just started wave 3 down.
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