EUR/USD - We had a small red candle yesterday, which confirmed the bearish engulfing candle and therefore the downside pressure should continue. The next hurdle will be a break below support at 132.80 but a break below here will confirm a test of the channel support-line near 131.50.
VIX Index & Dow Jones Industrial - The VIX did not close above the Bollinger mid-band yesterday, why we don't have a final resolution here, but a close above the mid-band should send us towards resistance in the 20.56 - 21.00 area. Any break above resistance at 21.00 should cause a continuation higher towards 38.30.We don't have a final resolution on the Dow Jones Industrial index either. Yesterday show a small white candle and we didn't break below the trend-line support, but any break below here should turn us down towards support at 12,753 and possibly 12,543
Gold - I'm very much in doubt what the future holds for us here. We could argue, that we have a complete five wave count from the low at 251.70 in 1999 to 1,920 in 2011. We can see some excellent fibo-relationships in this count. But I do also think the second alternative calling for one more high above 1,920 holds some excellent arguments. At this point I view the two counts as almost equal, with a little upper hand to the scenario calling for one more high as long as the trend-line support near 1,620 isn't broken to the downside.
Gold - I'm very much in doubt what the future holds for us here. We could argue, that we have a complete five wave count from the low at 251.70 in 1999 to 1,920 in 2011. We can see some excellent fibo-relationships in this count. But I do also think the second alternative calling for one more high above 1,920 holds some excellent arguments. At this point I view the two counts as almost equal, with a little upper hand to the scenario calling for one more high as long as the trend-line support near 1,620 isn't broken to the downside.
As I said in my post from yesterday that the break below 1,703.60 calls for one more right shoulder to finish the Inverted S/H/S and then a final rally higher. But you can also argue that we have seen a big S/H/S top with the left shoulder being build in the two first quarter of 2011. The head being build in the third quarter of 2011 and finally the right should being build in the last quarter of 2011 and the rally to 1,790 was only back-testing the broken neck-line see the daily chart above.
We will just have to flexible (as always) and play the odds as the market present them to us.
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