Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD/CHF; EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; CAD/USD; CAD/TRY; AUD/USD; AUD/TRY; NZD/USD and NZD/TRY

USD/CHF (Monthly) - When analysing a currency pair you will always start to look at the long term chart to determine the long term trend, which is clearly down. The next point is to see if you have made anything out of the extraordinary and in the case with USD/CHF I think the false break below the long term trend-line support is an extraordinary event. This is a classic signal, that the major trend might be changing.
If you are into the Elliott Wave Principle as I am, you will want to see if there are some workable relationships working in your favor, and in the case here we can see that wave [C] was almost 61.8% of wave [A], which is a normal turning point.
You will also want to see if you have any divergence on you indicator, which is also the case here. The low set at 70.85 was not confirmed by a low on the RSI (I could have chosen the MACD indicator too).
So all in all we do have some evidence that a long term bottom could be in place. So the next step is to close in on the later part of the price-action

USD/CHF (weekly) - Here we clearly can see the false break below the long term trend-line support (red). Again we have the divergence on the RSI confirming that the 70.85 low could me a very important long term low. Taking a step even closer.

USD/CHF (Daily) - We will now focus on the price-action since the 70.85 low and the first thing we should notice is, that we have seen a powerful rally counter to the long term trend, which could be the first part of a new long term uptrend.

Again if you are into the EWP you will want to see a five wave rally and preferable with wave iii the longest (It does not have to be that way, but more often than not it's the case). We have seen a five wave rally (see my count above) which raises the odd that 70.85 was an important low. Now we want to see a three wave correction. Depending on where wave v ended we might have ended this correction with an expanded flat correction and is ready to the next rally higher. If this is the case we should soon see minor resistance at 91.80 be broken.

However if we only have seen wave a and b of a simple zig-zag correction we soon will see support at 89.25 break for a continuation down towards 85.65 - 86.35 area before we can expect wave 2 to be done with.

EUR/USD - Here we might have seen a top at 133.85 yesterday, but to confirm this we need a break below 132.85 soon and more importantly we need a break below support at 131.90 for a move towards possible neckline support near 130.10.

However a break above the 133.85 - 133.90 will invalidate this scenario and call for a continuation higher towards 134.65 and possibly even into the 137 - 138 area, before we can expect renewed downside pressure.

EUR/JPY - It seems as wave b is finished now and we should see downside pressure building for a break below 109.88 for a move closer to my target-area in the 105.90 - 106.15 zone.

USD/CAD - Again seem ready to challenge important resistance at 110.50 and a break above here we clearly ease the downside pressure for a rally higher towards 102 and more likely the neckline resistance near 106.

Only a break below 98.42 will invalidate this picture and call for a deeper decline towards 96.90 - 97.20 area.

CAD/TRY - If you don't like the USD/CAD cross playing the CAD/TRY might be the way to go. A big top-formation might be building and you have a very nice forward premium working for you.

I'm still looking for a test of the neck-line support near 176.00 and a break below here will open up the downside for a decline towards the 162 - 163 area.

AUD/USD - Here we should soon see a new test of the trend-line support in the 103.30 - 103.60 area, but we need a break below here to really open up the downside potential.

AUD/TRY - Again if you don't like the AUD/USD cross (and there could be a lot of reasons for that and one very important one is the interest differential working against you) then AUD/TRY might be the cross for you. We have broken below support 187.25 which has opened up the downside and we should be looking for a decline towards 182 at least but more likely a decline towards the 175-176 area.

NZD/USD - After back-testing the broken trend-line support (now acting as resistance) we should soon see a test of important support at 80.55 an a break here would open up the downside for a decline towards the 78.35 - 78.80 area.

Any break back above 82.25 would delay the downside pressure and call for a new test of the broken trend-line.

NZD/TRY - Again if you don't like playing the NZD/USD cross because of many of the same reasons as mentioned for AUD/USD, then play this cross might be the answer. Again the interest differential will work in your favor and a break below 145 will call for a decline towards at least 137.60 but possibly even lower.