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Monday, March 12, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY and USD/CAD

Still no solution to the messy charts, but double-click on them and they are okay.

EUR/USD - We have seen the first wave (i) down in wave 3 end at 130.77 and should now be working on wave ii of 3. If my count is correct and we are in wave 3 down the correction will tend to be relatively small, which is why I would look for the correction to stall in the 131.30 - 131.60 area.
The next wave down (wave iii of 3) should be the most powerful for the down moves and will ideally reach 128.15, but it could go even deeper towards 126.00, but time will show.
USD/JPY - Have now reached the S/H/S objective. That doesn't mean that we can't see a move even higher, but just that we should be aware of the possibility of a reaction lower soon.
Depending on the structure of this possible reaction lower we will be able to say more about the future rallies.
If we can hold support near 81.85 and break clearly above 82.70 we could be headed for the 85.50 area, before we will see a more noteworthy reaction to the downside.
Otherwise a break below 81.40 will call for a deeper correction towards the 78.25 - 79.10 area.
USD/CAD - The larger picture is still somewhat unclear, but for now I'm looking for a reaction towards 98.90 before the next rally higher towards at least 99.53 but more likely closer to 99.90, where we find strong resistance.
In the bigger picture we still need a break above 100.30 to ease the downside pressure a call for a continuation higher towards the neckline resistance near 106.00.


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