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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; The VIX-Index; DJI; JNK and Crude oil

USD Index & EUR/USD - We can now count a clear five wave decline from 134.86 to 131.01
All we need now is a break above 131.56 to confirm that we have ended the entire sequence from 134.86. As long as 131.56 stays intact we could see one last decline just below 131.01 (not that I would count on that outcome).
What we will be looking for now is the structure of the coming rally. It should be a clear A-B-C rally, which ideally will not go much beyond 133.40. We could easily see resistance in the 132.40 -132.50 area cap the rally, but we should accept the possibility for a move closer to 133.40.
VIX Index - Is now sitting right at the neckline resistance at 20.95 a break above here will open up the upside for a continuation higher towards 23.65 and 28.30.
We should now find support at the Bollinger mid-band near 18.50.
Dow Jones Industrial - Broke slightly below 12,753 yesterday, but could not hold on to the break, which opens up for the possibility of a rise back towards 12,900, before the next attempt to break below support at 12,753 and if successful we will see a much deeper decline.
Junk Bonds (JNK) - Broken below it's support-line yesterday most likely ending the A-B-C correction since the 34.09 low. We should now see pressure building for a new decline towards 34.09 and below the ending point of wave [A] at 25.55 at some point.
Crude Oil - Is back-testing the former neckline resistance, which now acts as support and should not be broken in any major way. The Inverse S/H/S still calls for a move to at least 114.81, but the ideal target would be 131.60, but a clear break below the neckline support at 103.45 will question that scenario while a break below 95.84 will invalidate that picture all together and call for a much deeper decline.

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