I still regard the rally from 1,180.20 as a wave iv correction and expect more downside action to start soon as red wave v takes over for a decline towards at least 1,145 and maybe even lower towards 1,079 before red wave v and Black wave iii finally comes to an end.
As the series of waves one's and two's wave relatively small and complex we should expect the coming series of waves four's and five's to be simple and relatively large. That would likely mean, that every time a wave four correction takes over all the gold bugs will be calling for the start of the Next rally higher towards 2,000 and even 5,000 and in the extreme way beyond that.
The most important piece of information we have gotten here, was the decline below 21.34 as that told us, that the rally from 4.00 could not have been a impulsive rally, but rather a large zig-zag correction. That said, it does not mean we could not see new Highs for silver. I actually expect to see a new powerful rally once this major correction from 49.79 finally comes to an end, but as is the case for gold we are not quite there yet. Here too we likely have seen the top of red wave iv and red wave v is taking over for a decline towards towards 17.24 and maybe even 15.32 before red wave v and wave iii finally comes to and end.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the work on gold. Many people have the bottom already in, but your analysis makes sense.
Thanks again,
Duane
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your view on Gold. We both agree that the drop from 1920 is a correction in 3 way A-B-C
There are multiple counts presented by different EWer for the drop from Oct 2012. IMHO, I consider the low 1180 is the final low for 2 reasons.
- Firstly, from EW point of view, sequence of 5 wave down from OCt 2012 is fulfiled, with bullish divergence on Daily chart. This is key piece of confirmation. Divergence is typical at the end of a cycle
http://d.pr/i/qsg5
http://d.pr/i/t8Rj
-Secondly, the rally from 1180 is in 5-wave bullish impulsive style, and decline from temporary top @ 1434 is in corrective style. I consider this as confirmation signal of a large bullish trend in Gold in in the go. Let's take a closer look at lower timeframe chart.
http://d.pr/i/CFHG
It's my view on Gold i'd like to share, i mean no offense for your count EWs. Have a great week to you and other readers :)
Hi Vu Duc,
ReplyDeleteI think you count is a valid possibility.
However, when you have two rallies of equal length the first from 1,180.20 to 1,347.82 and the second from 1,283.65 to 1,433.73 it tend to be a correction, but wewill just have to wait for either a break support at 1,283.65 or a break above resistance at 1,488.02 to tell us which count is correct.
Kind regards
EWS