Is the B-wave correction over?
It could well be the case. We saw the rally from 0.8889 stop almost exactly on the 38.2% retracement target and at the same time this c-wave became exactly 1.618 times longer than the a-wave. However we still need the final confirmation to say the a firm top is in place. To confirm the top we need a break below 0.9286. Once support at 0.9286 breaks we should see the downside pressure intensify for a new decline towards 0.8889 and lower.
However as long as support at 0.9286 protects the downside, we must accept the possibility of a break above 0.9529, which will call for a continuation higher towards the 0.9671 - 0.9700 area, before the final top is in place.
Is the top in place here?
As is the case for the Aussie, we could have seen the top here too. Here we need a break below 0.8152 to confirm, that a firm top is in place at 0.8436. However, as long as support at 0.8152 protects the downside we could see a slightly higher high above 0.8436. That said, The decline from 0.8436 does have all the characteristics of being an impulsive wave, so I favor the top being in place already and is waiting for a break below 0.8152 to intensify the downside pressure for a new test of 0.7716 and lower.
Here the questions is whether wave iv is over or we just have see wave b of a flat correction calling for a new rally higher towards 1.1659 before we finally have wave iv in place and can expect the final decline closer to 1.10.
The decline we have just seen from 1.1659 is not a clear impulsive wave and that does favor the flat correction unfolding. However a break below 1.1286 and more important a break below 1.1204 will swing the odds towards wave v developing for the final decline towards 1.10, where we will find strong support.
dear Elliott Wave Surfer, first thanks for your great insights. I wonder if you have a view, a EW count on Usd/Sgd and/or Usd/Indonesian Rupiah. Thanks
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